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Thursday July 15, 2010 - 09:40:52 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/07/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis July 15,
Analysis: Core CPI
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures
the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key
way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the
common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign
investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD Analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke the
resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.2735, and advanced as it was
expected after this break, only to stop clearly before our suggested target
1.2801. Technically, the most important event of the past 24 hours was a new
touch of the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, as if the Euro is
seeking to score a record in how many times it is touching its channel. This
clearly shifts all lights to the top of this channel, this area deserves our
absolute attention, The Euro & the Dollar, are both in a â€śmake it or break
itâ€ť situation! The importance of (at least) the 5th test of this channel top is
absolutely enormous, it is the single most important factor in determining
medium term direction: from here we will see the Euro soaring for hundreds of
pips, of the Dollar dragging it down for hundreds of pips. Short term resistance
is at yesterdayâ€™s top 1.2768, if broken, we will jump to 1.2888, and may be then
1.2979. The support is at 1.2727, and a decisive break here will indicate that
we are drifting away from the channel top, and will most probably lead to a hard
fall to 1.2607, and may be 1.2542.
the rising trend line from yesterdayâ€™s low on intraday charts.
â€˘ 1.2607: last
â€˘ 1.2542: the slowly rising trend line
â€˘ 1.2776: yesterdayâ€™s top.
1.2888: April 20th low.
â€˘ 1.2979: May 4th
In yet another move of its
conflicting move which covered the last 2 days, the Dollar/Yen moved back to the
direction concordant with the shooting star pattern on the daily chart, as it
broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 88.42, but the following
shallow move bottomed at 88.00. We still believe that the wave count we
introduced last week is providing us with the most probable scenario: we are in
a wave 4 correction (please refer to the attached chart). Short term resistance
is at 88.64, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar will continue to
capitalize on its latest bounce, which will ideally target Fibonacci levels for
wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. Support is at 88.00, and breaking it would indicate a
continuation of the drop to 87.35 & 86.47. This pair is going as expected,
in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical
outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the
medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up
targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely
to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a
â€˘ 88.00: Asian session low.
â€˘ 87.35: an
obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
previous well known support.
â€˘ 88.64: the
falling trend line from Wednesdayâ€™s high on intraday charts.
Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
â€˘ 90.13: Fibonacci 61.8% for
the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
---Forex trading analysis written
by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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