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European Market Update: USD's price action moving away from sovereign risk theme towards US economic growth concerns (Trade the News)

Thursday, July 15, 2010 5:47:59 AM

 European Market Update: USD's price action moving away from sovereign risk theme towards US economic growth concerns


***Economic Data***
- (EU) Jun EU-25 New car Registrations: -6.9% v -9.3% prior
- (JP) Japan Jun Final Machine Tool Orders: 143.8% v 138.8% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jun PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.8%e
- (CZ) Czech May Export Price Index: 0.3% v -3.1% prior; Import Price Index: 3.1% v -0.4% prior
- (TU) Turkey Apr Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.8%e
- (FI) Finland May Current Account: -€830M v -€330M prior
- (CH) China Jun Actual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): 39.6 v 15.8%e
- (SW) Sweden Jun Average House Prices (SEK): 1.91M v 2.04M prior
- (DE) Denmark Jun Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prices; Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.2% prior
- (NV) Netherlands May Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.9% v 0.1% prior
- (EU) ECB July Monthly Report: Mirrors July 8th Trichet press conference
- (NO) Norway Jun Trade Balance (NOK): 25.4B v 26.6B prior
- (UK) Q1 BOE Housing Equity Withdrawal: -£3.2B v - £3.5Be
- (GR) Greece Apr Unemployment Rate: 11.9%% v 11.9%e
- (SZ) Swiss Credit Suisse ZEW Expectation Survey: 2.2v 17.5 prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jul 9th: $467.3B v $460.8B prior

Fixed Income:
- Spain Public Treasury (Tesoro Publico) sold €3.0B in 4.65% 2025 Bonds; avg yield 5.116% v 4.434% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.6x v 1.8x prior
- France Debt Agency (ATF) sells total €8.4B in BTAN and OAT tranches
- Sold €3.045B in 0.75% Sept 2012 BTAN; avg yeild 0.79% v 0.81% prior; Bid-to-cover 2.18x v 2.21x prior
- Sold €1.32B in 4.0% Apr 2013 OAT; avg yield 1.15% v 2.18% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.33x v 4.07x prior
- Sold €4.03B in 2.0% Jul 2015 BTAN; avg yield 1.98% v 2.10% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 2.30x
- UK Debt Management Office (DMO)sold £1.2B in 1.875% I/L 2022 Gilts; avg yield 0.947%; bid-to-cover 1.8x v 2.5x prior

- Spain Debt Agency sell upper end of amount
- BoJ upgrades its economic outlook, Chatter that Russia might upgrade its economic forecasts, Fed downgrades its economic view in its minutes. China GDP growth remain high buy lower y/y
- KKR IPO today.
- China Agbank IPO launched with muted response .
- Fitch: Warns on
China banks increasingly engaged in complex deals hiding size and nature of their lending.
- Realtytrac:
US foreclosures -5% in H1 vs H2 '09.

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.2% at 2,732 ; DAX Index flat at 6,210; CAC-40 Index -0.1% at 3,628 and FTSE 100 Index -0.3% at 5,236

- Novartis reported Q2 $1.20 (core) v $1.13e, R$11.7B v $11.4Be; Raises FY10 revenue guidance to the mid to high single digits (ex Alcon) v mid single digit percentage range guided in April)
- Thrombogenics released positive microplasmin phase II data
- Glaxosmithkline responded to FDA advisory committees' vote on safety of Avandia; GSK will continue to work with the FDA, patients taking Avandia should consult their doctors; Sees £1.57B legal charge in Q2
- Johnson & Johnson will submit action plan to FDA on fixing its quality control problems blamed for recent recalls
- Merk completed Millipore Acquisition; launches new EMD Millipore Division.
- Abcam's H2 results in line with expectations; Guided FY profit approx 9% ahead of market consensus.

- Storebrand reported Net loss of NOK39M v loss of NOK67Me
- Greek banks are trading higher on speculation that Piraeus Bank might bid for Atebank and Hellenic Postbank.
- Gartmore's top trader Guillaume Rambourg resigns during on going FSA investigation

- Hochtief subsidiary Leighton received fourth contract adjustment of A$700M to increase production by 50% by 2013 at Ukhaa Khudag coal mine in
Southern Mongolia.
Magnitogorsk sees 2011 steel output rising to 12M ton from 10M y/y . Guided FY10 Rev RUB20B; 2011 revenues at 250B.
- Novolipetsk Steel guides Q2 R$2.2B; reaffirms Q2 EBITDA margin 25%-30%; estimated 10%-15% q/q decline in pricing in Q3 due to weaker market environment

- Premier Oil guided FY10 production unchanged at 44K Boepd
-Tullow Oil reported
NSOGA-5 well successfully encountered 10 meters of net oil pay drilled total depth of 587 meters; Rig will now move 2km south to the Kigogole field.
- Global Energy Development reported production at 183.67K v 199.4K y/y
- Total reported Q2 European refining margin indicator $31.20/ton v $29.50 q/q (v $17.1 y/y)
- According to an article on NYT regarding BP, well cap "pressure" test has been delayed due to an unexpected leak on Thursday morning.
- Chevron sells 45.9% stake in Nigera Sao-Tome license to Total
- York Capital seeking a stake in Conergy through taking over some of it's loans to be later converted into shares in Conergy

Consumer discretionary
- 888 Holdings receives French license by France Gaming Regulator, Autoritde Rgulation des Jeux en Ligne (
ARJEL), to operate poker betting websites
- Electrocomponents reported Q1 revenue grew by approx 24%
- Hennes & Mauritz reported Jun SSS +9.0%
- Netflix extended license agreement with Warner Bros

- Cryptologic in its trading update, expected Q2 revenue to decline over Q1
- ON semiconductor acquires Sanyo Electric chip unit for approx $366M (¥33B). Transaction to be accretive to
- Dimension Data will be acquired by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp for 120p/shr in cash; transaction valued at £2.1B (18% premium)

- Speakers:
- BoJ Gov Shirakawa: Appreciation of the yen currency is harming exports in the short-term; economy of the country inline with its April outlook
- Germany Economics Min Bruederle expects full recovery by 2013 - Augsburger
- Richmond Fed President Lacker: "safe bet" the Fed's next move would be toward tighter policy - FT
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes from July 1st: Repo rate needs to be raised gradually (raised by 25bps to 0.50%)
- ECB July Monthly Report: China Yuan currency appreciation might help to dampen Chinese inflation and CNY appreciation to give PBoC great policy scope
- Japan Former MoF Official Sakakibara (aka Mr. Yen): EU and euro are in a state of 'disintegration'. Expects growth in the
US to slow.
- Italy Banker's Association Head: Italian banks are in very good shape
- ECB's Draghi: No alternative but to withdraw monetary expansion; EMU monetary policy remains strongly expansive
- Japan Fin Min Ikeda: Japan's public finances in a severe state
- Slovakia Gov't recommends its Parliament NOT to support bilateral loan to Greece; Approves Euro safety net with reservations
- China PBoC's Hu: Managed floating currency rate is established policy and in the country's long term interest
- (IT) Italy senate approves budget-cut plan; government wins confidence vote

- Currencies: The USD maintained a soft tome against the major pairs in the session as market participants noted that the dollar's focus had moved away from sovereign risks situation and towards concerns over the US growth slowdown. The Spanish auction was received well with an average yield 5.11% after trading around 5.21% on Wednesday. Peripheral spread narrowed in the session as a result of
Spain with the Spanish / German 10 year yield lower by 5bps towards the 200bps neighborhood. The EUR/USD tested fresh two-month highs at 1.2800 before consolidating. GBP/USD moved above the 1.53 handle. USD/JPY again hovering around the 88.00 pivotal area.

- Geopolitical:
- British Petroleum confirmed that it lobbied the British government in relation to a prisoner transfer pact with Libya, and was not involved in talks about Megrahi's release.
- Hungary's President is said to be planning to hold local elections on October 3rd.
- Germany sets air travel tax effective the start of next year; The tax will be set at €13-€26 depending on distance travelled.

- In the Papers:
- Ukraine increased household natural gas prices 50% as part of its austerity measures and reforms to unlock standby loan from the IMF valued close to $15 billion.
- The Financial Times commented on the growing political tensions in Spain, as increasingly less popular Prime Minister Zapatero is challenged by opposition; The opposition party leader Rajoy called for national elections before the scheduled 2012 date.
- Swiss newspaper Neu Zuricher Zeitung suggested Swiss National Bank's Hildebrand may lose his job because of the losses from central bank's intervention.
- SeekingAlpha citing report from Swiss newspaper Neu Zuricher Zeitung suggesting SNB's Hildebrand may lose his job because of the losses from central bank's intervention

***Looking Ahead ***
- (IT) Italy senate holds confidence vote on budget-cut plan
- (RU) Russia Jun Industrial Production M/M: % v 1.8%e; Y/Y: % v 11.7%e v 12.6% prior
- 8:00 (RU) Russia Jun Producer Prices M/M: % v 1.5%e; Y/Y: % v 18.4%e
- 8:30 (US) Jun Producer Price Index M/M: -0.1%e v -0.3% prior; PPI Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 445Ke v 454K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.444Me v 4.413M prior

- 8:30 (US) Jul Empire Manufacturing: 18.00e v 19.57 prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -4.7% prior; Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.45e v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Jun Copper Exports: No est v $2.8B prior
- 8:30 (US) Fed's Duke
- 8:30 (US) Treasury Wolin speech in NY
- 9:00 (US) Senate hearings on Fed nominees
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Trade Balance: No est v -€358.3M prior
- 9:00 (PD) Poland Jun Budget Level (PLN): No est v -5.2B prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v -32.1B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 61.6% prior
- 9:15 (US) Jun Industrial Production: -0.1%e v 1.3% prior; Capacity Utilization: 74.1%e v 74.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jul Philadelphia Fed: 10.0e v 8.0 prior
- 10:00 Senate hearing on Fed nominations
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Jun Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 3.0% prior
- 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank interest Rate decision: Expected to maintain both the Benchmark and Overnight Borrowing Rates at current levels of 7.00% and 6.50% respectively
- 14:30 (US) Treasury's Barr at Senate subcommittee
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.2% prior



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