***Economic Data**** - (US) Jun Producer Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -0.1%e; PPI Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e - (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 429K v 445Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.681M v 4.444Me - (US) Jul Empire Manufacturing: 5.08 v 18.00e - (CA) Canada May New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e - (CL) Chile Jun Copper Exports: $2.8B v $2.8B prior - (BE) Belgium Apr Trade Balance: -â‚¬992.6M v -â‚¬358.3M prior - (PD) Poland Jun Budget Level (PLN): -4.8B v -5.2B prior; Budget Level YTD: -36.8B v -32.1B prior; Budget Performance YTD: 70.5% v 61.6% prior - (US) Jun Industrial Production: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Capacity Utilization: 74.1% v 74.1%e - (BR) Brazil Jun Tax Collections (BRL): 61.5B v 64.0Be - (US) Jul Philadelphia Fed: 5.1 v 10.0e - (RU) Russia Jun Producer Prices M/M: -3.1% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 9.7% v 18.4%e - (RU) Russia Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.4% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 9.7% v 11.7%e - (BR) Brazil Jun Caged Formal Job Creation: 213.0K v 279Ke
- Troubling economic data out this morning has spooked investors by invigorating talk of slowing growth and deflation, erasing much of the equity gains seen over the last two sessions. The New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing reports were very weak: New York's July Empire survey tumbled to 5 from nearly 20 in June. At first glance, the weekly claims data was strong, with the initial claims hitting their lowest level since August 2008. However, analysts were quick to point out that manufacturers, especially the auto companies, have not carried out their regular summer shutdowns, skewing the numbers. Continuing claims hit their highest level since the beginning of June. The June wholesale price index fell for a third consecutive month with the top line handily below expectations, further stoking fears that deflation is here. Food costs fell 2.2 percent in June, the biggest decline since April 2002. Front-month crude is near its lows of the session, trading below the $76 handle. Bond prices have benefited from the soft data pushing yields and the Greenback lower in tandem. The 10-year is back below 3% and the 30-year is sub 4%.
- JP Morgan was the first of the major US financial institutions to report Q2 results. The firm beat earnings expectations by a wide margin, although its revenue fell slightly short of the consensus view. Note that the firm's investment banking revenue, which was a major revenue driver last quarter, declined by 25% from last quarter's total. Executives said that they expect card delinquency and charge-off metrics to continue to improve, although the key metrics remain at "unacceptably high levels." Pharma giant Novartis exceeded expectations in its Q2 report and increased its 2010 revenue guidance. Hotel giant Marriott was also a bit ahead of the consensus, and increased its 2010 EPS outlook. Marriott executives said room rates in North America rose for the first time in nearly two years, and projected that pricing would improve further this year. Trucker Landstar was in line with expectations in its Q2 report, although its qualitative comments were positive. The company said industry volumes are positive and June/July data suggest the strength will be sustained in Q3. Industrial supplies name WW Grainger beat earnings targets, and said strong sales growth in June would continue in July.
- The US data releases were not kind to the dollar this morning and the greenback extended its session losses. As noted during the European morning, the dollar's price action was moving away from the sovereign risk theme and toward US economic growth concerns. Dealers focused on the soft headline PPI and weaker EmpireState index and looked past the better initial claims data to note the increase in the unadjusted claims to above 500K. EUR/USD approached the 1.29 handle while the GBP/USD inched towards the 1.54 neighborhood.
***Looking Ahead*** - 11:30 (IS) Israel Jun Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 3.0% prior - 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank interest Rate decision: Expected to maintain both the Benchmark and Overnight Borrowing Rates at current levels of 7.00% and 6.50% respectively - 14:30 (US) Treasury's Barr at Senate subcommittee - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.2% prior
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