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Thursday July 15, 2010 - 22:31:10 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Friday 16 July 2010


News and views

US data spooks equities. The S&P500 is currently unchanged having pared the pre-opening gains inspired by the good JP Morgan earnings result. The batch of US data released included weak manufacturing surveys for NY and Philadelphia, and sent the S&P500 20pts lower as investors questioned the sustainability of the positive company earnings. Also weighing on sentiment was the possibility the US Senate may vote on financial industry regulation today. A late spike may have been BP related. The commodities basket is slightly higher, although key indicators oil (-0.7%) and copper (-0.2%), as well as shipping costs paint a gloomier picture. US 2yr yields just nudged to a record low on the weak data, but 10yr yields fell 7bp, flattening the yield curve 6bp. Spain's 15yr treasury auction was successful, its 10yr bonds outperforming the German equivalent by 10bp in sympathy.

The US dollar's identity crisis of the past few days continued, it last night behaving in a pro-cyclical manner and falling around 1% on the weak data, equities, and yields. EUR defied gravity to surge from around 1.2730 to 1.2915, challenging the 100-day moving average, and earning outperformer of the day status. Curiously, the second best performer was the safe-haven yen, gaining from 88.20 to 87.20 against the dollar.

AUD was choppy and lower, the US data seeing it spike down to 0.8727 at NY's open although it has recovered to 0.8830.

NZD ranged sideways around 0.7220 until a late NY surge took it to 0.7300. AUD/NZD continued lower, to 1.2100.

US NY and Philly Fed factory stories slow further in July. The Empire State survey fell from 20 to 5, while Philly fell from 8 to 5 in July. Apart from a stronger jobs read in Philadelphia, the key activity components in both were all quite a bit softer. The recent peak for these regional surveys was in April, with NY at 32 and Philly at 21. That represents a significant softening in business sentiment, consistent  with our view that the US economy is slowing relative to H1 2010.

US industrial production up 0.1% in June. Manufacturing output was down 0.4% - further evidence that the factory sector has started to see growth moderate - but a further sharp rise in utility output prevented an overall IP decline.

US initial jobless claims fall 29k to 429k in w/e 10/7. Our advice is to ignore claims swings in July. The seasonal adjustment of this weekly series breaks down every July due to shifting dates for the annual summer shutdowns of auto plants for new model retooling, and associated lay-off/rehiring.

US producer prices fall 0.5% in June. A 2.2% fall in food prices pulled the PPI lower; energy prices also fell as did auto and light truck prices, although the core rate was up 0.1%.

BoJ decision, no change. At their July meeting, the BoJ decided to maintain the current stance of policy. The statement was broadly positive with the growth forecast for FY2010 revised up to 2.6% (midpoint), previously 1.8% (midpoint), owing to stronger-than-expected growth in emerging markets. The FY2011 growth forecast was broadly unchanged as was the inflation forecast for both fiscal years.

UK mortgage equity withdrawal figures for Q1 from the Bank of England showed a GBP3.2bn injection, making it two years now that households have been effectively paying down mortgage debt.

Canadian manufacturing sales up 0.4% in May, their ninth month running without a fall. Autos and food led the latest rise. Also in May, auto sales rose 0.2%, with StatCan advising that June sales were up by around 2%.


AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:  AUD resistance area at 0.8860-0.8870 should continue to hold, 0.8700 beckoning. NZD traders will watch today's inflation data, a positive surprise likely to take the currency above 0.7300; otherwise it needs a breather.


Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




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