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Forex News - European Market Update: Euro approaching 1.30 against dollar

Friday, July 16, 2010 5:55:25 AM

 European Market Update: Euro approaching 1.30 against dollar


***Economic Data***
- (HU) Hungary May Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: -0.9% v 3.1%e
- (TU) Turkey Jun Consumer Confidence: 88.0 v 86.6 prior
- (SP) Spain May Industrial Orders Y/Y: 10.2% v 6.2% prior Service Sector Sales Y/Y: 4.8% v 1.9% prior
- (SP) Spain Q2 House Price Index Q/Q: -0.9% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.5% v -4.5% prior
- (IT) Italy May Current Account: € v -€3.8B prior
- (IT) Italy May Total Trade Balance: -€2.0B v -€860.0M prior; Trade Balance EU:-€540M v +€181.0 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Trade Balance: -€3.4B v -€500Me; Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: -€-3.0B v €800Me
- (EU) Eastern European (CEE-region) Jul ZEW Consumer Confidence: 11.4 v 20.4 prior
- (IT) Italy May Current Account: -€4.4B v -€3.8B prior

Fixed Income:
-(SA) South Africa Bond Auction Results
- Sold ZAR260M in I/L R210, avg yield 3.09%
- Sold ZAR250M in I/L R212, avg yield 3.02%
- Sold ZAR90M in I/L R202, avg yield 3.05%

- Notes/Observations:
- China Premier Wen: Euro has been and will be important investment choice; Euro probing the 1.30 level
- BP manages to plug the Gulf of Mexico leak

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.1% at 2,705 ; DAX Index +0.1 at 6,155; CAC-40 Index +0.2% at 3,587 and FTSE 100 Index +0.5% at 5,239

- BP issues Gulf of Mexico Update: Well integrity test is continuing on MC252 well. It is expected that no oil will be released to the ocean during the test. Even if no oil is released during the test, this will not be an indication that oil and gas flow from the wellbore has been permanently stopped.
- Fortum reported Q2 Net €263M v €285Me, Rev €1.3B v €1.2Be
- Yara reported Net 3.7B NOK v NOK3.8Be, EBITDA NOK6.6B v NOK6Be, Rev NOK15.7B v NOK17Be

Consumer Staples
- Wal-Mart plans to raise ¥100B in 5-yr and 10-yr samurai bonds

- Galapagos NV entered into discovery collaboration agreement with University of Bristol for chronic pain Telecom
- Elisa reported Q2 Net €39.5M v €43Me, Rev €364M v €357Me; reiterated FY10 outlook

- Lindas International reported Q2 Net SEK27M v SEK13M y/y, Rev SEK1.72B v SEK1.82B y/y
- Chloride Group provided interim statement and noted that sales were ahead of the prior year
Consumer Discretionary
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales 9.1% for the week ending 10th July
- Mothercare in discussions to acquire a 25% stake in Headline Group Limited
- Clapham reported prelim FY09 EBITDA £6M v £7.3M y/y, Rev £44.5M v £42.7M y/y
- Better Bed Holding reported preliminary Q2 results: profit to be at least €1.6M v €800K y/y; Rev €81.7M v 81.1M y/y

- Tele2 to acquire BBNed for SEK475M from Telecom Italia
- Sony Ericsson reported Q2 Net €12M v €50Me, pretax €31M v €17Me, Rev €1.76B v €1.8Be
- Bluebay Asset Management reported AUM at $34.3B v $37.0B q/q
- Invista Foundation Property reported interim statement: NAV 51.2p/shr v 52.4p/shr q/q

- Speakers:
- Germany Labor Min Weise: Lowers 2010 deficit forecast to €11.3B from €14.0B prior
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank): To increase price of 28-day loans; effective July 26th
- Turkey Fin Min Simsek: 2011 budget to be in line with medium term plan
- China NDRC: Sees more stabilizing inflation factors in H2 with the foundation in place to achieve 2010 inflation target of 3.0%
- IMF Strauss-Kahn: European economic growth is clearly a problem
- ECB's Honohan: Important that Ireland adhere to fiscal adjustment program

- Currencies: The EUR/USD continued its advance and hit fresh two-month highs above 1.2970 level ahead of the NY morning. The Euro continued to find support on any dips. Dealers again noting the USD price action was reflecting on the implications of a slower US economy in the recent batch of data and its price action was moving away from the sovereign risk theme and centering on US economic growth concerns ( and a likely longer delay in any Fed's tightening cycle). Also aiding the Euro was the interest rate differentials as US yields hit historic lows combined with a continued rise seen in short-dated Euro rates. The Spanish/Bund 10-year Gov't spread continued to tighten in the wake of yesterday's successful 15-year auction by Tesoro with the premium narrowing to 180bps verses 210 prior to the 15-year sale on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair also probed its 2010 lows as it briefly probed below the 87 handle. Dealer chatter of Kampo bids lurking below the 87 level capping dollar losses for the time being.

- Geopolitical:
- Russian President Medvedev supported controversial legislation to expand authorities of Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the KGB).

- In the Papers: In the Telegraph, it was noted that JP Morgan is to pay £328M in UK bank bonus tax, which is more than half the total amount the Government expected the levy to raise when it was introduced.
- the Business Standard reported that Vodafone could pay a large premium equal to as much as $750M over the fair market to acquire a portion of Essar Group's stake in their joint venture in India.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (IS) Israel Q1 Final Q1 GDP Annualized: % v 3.6% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jul FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.3%e v 1.3% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Avg Gross Wages M/M: 3.0%e v -1/5% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 4.8% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Employment M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; CPI NSA: 218.298e v 218.178 prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun Leading Indicator M/M: 0.7%e v 0.9% prior
- 9:00 (US) May Net Long Term TIC Flows: $30.0Be v $83.0B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $15.0B prior
- 9:55 (US) Jul Preliminary University of Michigan: 74.0e v 76.0 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Rate at 4.50%
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 9.1%e v 9.7% prior



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