***Economic Data*** - (BR) Brazil Jul FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e - (PD) Poland Jun Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.7% v 3.0%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 5.0%e - (PD) Poland Jun Employment M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e - (US) Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; CPI NSA: 217.965 v 218.298e - (CA) Canada Jun Leading Indicator M/M: 1.0% v 0.7%e - (US) May Net Long Term TIC Flows: $35.4B v $40.0Be; Total Net TIC Flows: $17.5 v $13.0B prior - (US) Jul Preliminary University of Michigan: 66.5 v 74.0e - (MX) Mexico Central Bank maintained the Overnight Rate at 4.50%; as expected
- Earnings from Bank of America and Citigroup pulled futures lower before the open this morning, as Q2 results from the banks disappointed investors. Problematic earnings reports from General Electric and Google are also weighing on markets. The preliminary July University of Michigan Confidence survey fell from June levels, missing expectations. EUR/USD punched through the key 1.30 level briefly in the wake of the poor earnings reports, but has reversed course on a sharp moves in USD/JPY below 87.00. Note that the positive sentiment hoped for from BP's successful effort to temporarily plug its leaking Macondo well and Goldman Sachs' SEC settlement has been clearly overshadowed by Q2 corporate results and more troubling data leading to fresh stock price lows late in the NY morning. August gold is near one-week lows, just above the $1,190 handle. Front-month crude is trading below $76, down 1%. Copper prices have hit fresh 2-week lows at $2.93. Treasury prices have seen bids pushing the 10-year note future out to an all time high for the Sep contract above 123. The 10-year benchmark yield is back towards 2.93% while the 30-year is below 3.95%.
- Investors are punishing Citigroup and Bank of America this morning, with shares of Citi down nearly 4% and BoA down more than 6%. Earnings at both firms beat expectations, while revenue totals missed consensus views. Analysts have been focusing in on the firms' earnings quality, with some noting that significant portions of earnings come from one-time items related to asset sales and upwards adjustments to certain assets under mark-to-market rules. At BoA, net charge offs and provisions for credit losses continue to decline, even as non-performing assets and allowances for loan losses hold steady or grow. Citi's credit quality increased slightly as well. BoA's CEO told CNBC that consumers continue to spend more, although this increase is slowing somewhat. Citi's CFO noted that all companies that offer credit cards in the US are struggling with the recently-passed card act as well as the overall credit environment. Shares of Goldman Sachs rose more than 4% in the premarket following the firm's settlement of the Abacus case with the SEC, although Goldman is off its best levels mid morning. Apparently CEO BlankNote that shares of Charles Schwab are up nearly 6% after beating earnings targets.
- Like Citi and BoA, General Electric's earnings totals missed expectations. The firm noted that higher income and lower losses at GE Capital were particularly encouraging. On the conference call, executives said that GE would pull off single-digit order growth in the second half of 2010, which would represent the first growth in orders since the beginning of 2008. GE also said that the commercial real estate business remains a "tough spot" and it is expected to remain under pressure. Shares of GE are down 3%.
- Shares of Google are down a whopping 5% after the search giant missed earnings expectations by a hair and said that its paid clicks total fell on a sequential basis. The company's European business was a source of weakness, thanks to declines in the euro; around one-third of its revenue comes out of Europe. Number two chipmaker AMD crushed earnings expectations and beat on revenue, but overall market weakness is hitting the firm's shares, with AMD down 2% or so.
- EUR/USD tested the 1.30 handle in the early part of the NY morning attributed to option related buying. However Euro-related crosses were 'hammered during mid-NY morning and weighed upon the outright EUR/USD rate, which fell back below 1.2940. The USD/JPY continued to hit fresh 2010 lows below 86.35 following the much weaker University of Michigan sentiment headline (lowest reading in a year). Much of the dealer chatter focused on aspect that the US was now flirting with deflationary scenarios given the recent CPI and PPI data but questioned the durability of the Euro's 6-week rally ahead of next Friday's release of the EU stress test. The US TIC data showed that China's treasury holdings fell by $32.5B in May to $867.7B. Total foreign holdings edged up a slight $5.8B to $3.96T.
***Looking Ahead*** - (AR) Argentina May Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 9.1%e v 9.7%
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
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