The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2890
level and was capped around the $1.3005 level.Data released in the U.S. today saw the June headline consumer price
index off 0.1% m/m and up 1.1% y/y while the ex-food and energy core component
was up 0.2% m/m and 0.9% y/y.Additionally, May net long-term TIC flows came in at US$ 35.4 billion,
down from the revised prior reading of US$ 81.5 billion, while May total net
TIC flows moved higher to US$ 17.5 billion from the prior revised tally of US$
13.0 billion.Finally, the mid-July
University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator fell sharply to 66.5 from
the prior reading of 76.0.The July NAHB
housing market index will be released on Monday.Yesterday, U.S. Senate passed key financial regulatory
reform laws that will seek to strengthen oversight over systemically-important
firms, increase some of the Federal Reserveâ€™s powers, and seek to avert another
major credit crisis like the one that unfolded three years ago.Critics of the new legislation suggest it
does not address the massive imbalances caused by U.S. wholesale mortgage giants
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae.Former
Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan this week said the U.S. government should
let the Bush tax cuts lapse this year to boost tax revenue and reduce the
federal budget deficit.San Francisco
Fed President Yellen testified this week in her Senate confirmation hearing to
become the new Fed Vice Chairman and noted job creation remains a â€śhigh
priorityâ€ť to bring down â€śpainfully highâ€ť umemployment.Minutes from the most recent Federal Open
Market Committee meeting were released this week and indicated a growing
concern over the economy.Fed Chairman
Bernanke will deliver his semi-annual economic report to Congress next
week.In eurozone news, the European Central Bankâ€™s July monthly bulletin
this week reported some eurozone jobs â€świll be permanently downsized.â€ťData released today saw the EMU-16 May trade
balance decline to -â‚¬3.4 billion from the revised prior reading of â‚¬300
million.Data to be released on Monday
include the May current account balance and May construction output.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ88.25
level and was capped around the ÂĄ87.50 level.Data released in Japan overnight saw June nationwide department store
sales decline 6.0% y/y while Tokyo-area department store sales were off 5.5%
y/y.Bank of Japan maintained its
economic assessment for the third consecutive month in July, reporting â€śJapanâ€™s
economy shows further signs of a moderate recovery, induced by an improvement
in overseas economic conditions.â€ť It added â€śJapanâ€™s economy is likely to
recover at a moderate pace.â€ťAs expected,
Bank of Japan this week lifted its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year
ending March 2011 to 2.6% from its April estimate of 1.8%.BoJ also reduced its forecast for the next
fiscal year to 1.9% from 2.0%.Bank of
Japanâ€™s Policy Board this week kept its benchmark unsecured overnight call rate
target unchanged at 0.1%.Dealers expect
the government will increase its pressure on the central bank to ease monetary
policy further, perhaps by expanding the number of Japanese government bonds it
purchases.BoJ Governor Shirakawa
reported the BoJ â€śalready expected the pace of the economic recovery to slow
down in coming monthsâ€ť following its â€śrapidâ€ť rebounds from late last year.The central bank is also now predicting
consumer prices excluding fresh food will decline 0.4% this fiscal year, down
from Aprilâ€™s -0.5% forecast.Notably,
the central bank maintained its forecast that calls for a 0.1% increase in core
inflation in the fiscal year starting April 2011.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 2.86% to
close at ÂĄ9,408.36.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ÂĄ86.29 level.The euro
moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
ÂĄ111.50 level and was capped around the ÂĄ113.35 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ132.00 figure while the Swiss franc
moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ82.00 figure. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7747 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7781. The
slowdown in economic growth reported in China this week caused Chinese interest
rate swaps to decline to one-year lows.Many
data were released in China this week.First,
second quarter real gross domestic product growth decelerated to +10.3% y/y
from the prior reading of 11.9%.Gross
domestic product is now up 11.1% y/y but most economists expect growth to
decelerate further this year.Second,
the June purchasing price index was up 10.8% y/y, down from +12.2% y/y.Third, the June producer price index and June
consumer price index were up 6.4% y/y and 2.9% y/y, respectively.Fourth, June retail sales growth slowed to
18.3% y/y. Fifth, industrial production growth slowed to +13.7% y/y from the
prior reading of +16.5%.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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