Falling Treasury Yields indicate Higher Risk Assets should Weaken Further
September Treasury Bonds surged to the upside once again as
traders flocked to the safety of the lower yielding Treasury market. In
addition, the weak U.S.
economic data means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates down for a
prolonged period of time.
Ten-Year Treasury futures made a new high for the year. This
move reflects both fear in holding higher yielding assets and confidence that
the Fed will be forced to keep interest rates low.
August Gold closed sharply lower on the heels of the poor
economic news. Investors are pricing in a low inflation environment. A break
through the recent bottom at $1185.00 is likely to trigger a further decline
into a key 50% retracement level at $1158.30.
Stock traders finally succumbed to mounting pressure leading
to a sharp sell-off in the equity markets. Reports this month havenâ€™t been
good, but investors have for the most part ignored the data and instead turned
their focus to earnings. Today, however, investors appeared to have scrapped
Plan A, choosing instead to react to another round of bearish economic reports.
Following Thursdayâ€™s closing price reversal tops, the
markets sold off sharply and are now in a position to correct back to at least
50% of the recent 8 day rally. The chart patterns suggest the September E-mini
S&P could correct to 1051.00 over the short-run. The September E-mini
NASDAQ is set up for a break back to 1782.00 and the September E-mini Dow could
fall to 9936.
The pace of the break in the equity markets following the
recent rally suggests that buyers drove stock markets higher with very little
conviction. This is typical action in a bear market.
Forex investors did an about face from earlier in the week,
ending the week by dumping higher risk assets. The sharp rise in the Yen and
the sell-off in commodity-linked currencies is a strong sign that investors are
shifting toward a risk-off trading strategy.
The Euro surged to the upside shortly after the New York opening and before the release of U.S.
economic data, briefly piercing the 1.30 level for the first time since early
The last thrust to the upside in the Euro was in
anticipation of weak U.S.
economic data which has been the main driving force in the Euro this week. With
traders anticipating bearish reports, the release of a weak consumer sentiment
number as well as consumer price report became a â€śbuy the rumor, sell the factâ€ť
Earlier in the week the Fed released a dovish outlook for
economy, forecasting a lower Gross Domestic Product and a sluggish jobs
outlook. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, is more upbeat about the
Euro Zone economy. The Fed is talking about renewing quantitative easing while
the ECB sounds cautiously optimistic about the Euro Zone recovery. The
difference in each central bankâ€™s assessment of its economy is sending a signal
that the ECB may be closer to raising interest rates than the Fed. This is
encouraging some light buying, but the majority of the rally in the Euro has
probably been short-covering.
Technically, the September Euro attracted selling pressure
at a Fibonacci number at 1.2998. After a prolonged move up in both price and
time, the Euro is now trading lower, putting it in a position to post a daily
closing price reversal top. This pattern usually suggests the start of a 2 to 3
week break or 50% of the last rally.
The weak U.S.
economic outlook is driving investors out of higher yielding assets and into
the safety of the lower yielding Japanese Yen. A sharp sell-off in the U.S.
equity markets is fueled a break in the Australian Dollar. The combination of a
worse than expected inflation report and weak U.S. stock market pressured the New
Zealand Dollar. Weak equities and crude oil triggered a break in the Canadian
Technically the lack of follow-through to the upside in the September
Australian Dollar following the attempted breakout over the main top at .8858
helped to pressure the Aussie on Friday. Based on the main range of .8315 to
.8870, traders should watch for a correction to .8592 to .8527.
The current chart formation in the New Zealand Dollar
suggests a correction to .7948 to .6988 is likely over the near-term.
The September Canadian Dollar continues to remain rangebound
and quite choppy. Continue to look for a choppy, two-sided trade unless the CAD
crosses .9357. If this scenario develops, then look for an acceleration to the downside.
This move will also be a strong indication that stocks and commodities are
The main trend is up in the September Swiss Franc with the
market currently testing its highest level since early April. A shift in
investor sentiment out of risky assets could trigger a turnaround in this pair.
Fridayâ€™s action suggests that a closing price reversal top is forming which
could lead to a massive break next week. Based on the current chart formation,
a breakdown under .9376 will turn the main trend to down.
The September British Pound was under pressure on Friday
following a strong weekly gain. Todayâ€™s weakness came as a surprise because
this pair closed on its high Thursday. The sudden shift in investor sentiment
is most likely a sign that investors feel the fading global recovery will
hamper chances of a recovery in the U.K. and diminish hopes of a rate
hike by the Bank of England.
Another sign that interest rates are likely to remain at
historically low levels was the strong gain in British Gilts. Like the Treasury
market is for the U.S.
economy, the Gilt market movement reflects how investors really feel about the
economy. Since Gilts rose, yields fell, thereby signaling that traders are
factoring in lower interest rates.
The week started with the focus on U.S. corporate earnings, but
quickly shifted toward the economy. While good earnings have been driving up
demand, it appears that investors have decided that the economic data should
carry more weight. The question being asked is can corporations sustain
earnings growth in the wake of a weakening economy? Todayâ€™s action seems to
indicate that the answer is no.
The key indicator to watch is the Japanese Yen. A rising Yen
will be a strong sign that investors are forecasting a weaker global economy.
Commodity-linked currencies are likely to suffer the most if investors lean
toward a risk-off environment.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.