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Monday July 19, 2010 - 10:07:23 GMT
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European Market update: Markets look past Moody's sovereign downgrade of Ireland (Trade the News)

Monday, July 19, 2010 5:54:01 AM

 European Market update: Markets look past Moody's sovereign downgrade of Ireland


***Economic Data***
- (PH) Philippines Jun Balance of Payments: $502M v $388M prior
- (FI) Finland Jun PPI M/M: 0.5% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Current Account : -€5.8B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Net Seasonally adj: -€16.7B v -€7.5B prior
- (NO) Norway Q2 Existing Homes Q/Q: 3.7% v 3.4% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Construction Output M/M: -1.0% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -6.3% v -5.7% prior
- (IS) Israel May Unemployment Rate: 6.5% v 6.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany sells €1.72 in 9-month Bubills at avg yield 0.5500% v 0.3272% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.0x v 2.7x prior

- Notes/Observations:
- Moody's catches up to other rating agencies on Ireland after it cut the sovereign rating by a notch
- Hungary Econ Min: Further austerity measures are out of the question; Talks with IMF and EU stall
- Former PBOC advisor Yu: China should reduce USD assets.
- European banking sector stress tests will be a key focus this week. Due on Friday.
- FT: Bankers concerned over stress tests. Bankers concerned over way in which tests had been conducted and worried markets could misinterpret the outcome.

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.3% at 2,653 ; DAX Index +0.3 at 6,056; CAC-40 Index +0.2% at 3,508 and FTSE 100 Index +0.3% at 5,173

- Chile's LAN in talks to buy 50 to 70 A320s from European Aeronautic Defence & Space
- Georg Fischer reports H1 Net CHF41M v loss CHF139M y/y
- Electrolux reported Q2 Net Profit SEK1.03B v SEK908Me, Rev SEK27.3B v SEK27Be
- GKN Awarded contracts worth $600M to make parts for Rolls Royce
- Tomkins received £3.25/share or £2.9B in cash proposal from a consortium of Onex and Canada Pension Plan (45% premium to prior close)
- Magnitogorsk reported Q2 crude steel production 2.99M v 2.73M q/q, up 9% y/y
- Groupe Eurotunnel reported Q2 Rev €186.9M v €153.4M y/y; H1 Net loss of €45M v loss of €5M y/y
- Finmeccanica saw 2011 orders above €22B v €21B in FY09
- Boeing executive saw an uneven recovery with US lagging

- Philips Electronics reports Q2 Net €262M v €241Me, Rev €6.2B v €6.2Be. Expects like-for-like sales growth to moderate towards mid-single digits for the remainder of the year vs H1
- E2V provided interim statement: trading significantly ahead compared to last year period

- Sanofi-Aventis granted FDA approval for Jevtana (cabazitaxel) Injection

Consumer discretionary
- Heidelberger Druckmaschien reported preliminary Q1 Rev at €514M v €715M q/q. Annual trend remained uncertain
- Kuehne & Nagel reported H1 Net CHF281M v CHF281Me, Rev CHF9.8B v CHF9.2Be
- Sthree reported H1 Net £4.8M v £1.6M y/y, Gross Profit £74.3M v £93.3M y/y, Rev £221.7M v £280.6M y/y
- WPP Group will take stake in Chinese Leading Smart Holdings Limited

- BP provided Gulf of Mexico update; cost of response to date around $3.95B v $3.12B on July 5th. The pressure inside the well recently has been measured at approximately 6,792 pounds per square inch and continues to rise slowly (v 6,700 psi on July 16th)
- UK Coal provided trading update: Reports H1 Operating loss £52M incl group's share of a JV
- International Power confirmed that it is in preliminary talks with GDF Suez

- GEM provided H1 trading update: Sold 41.5 carats at avg price $1,728; v $1,398 y/y; Expects to achieve all production targets in H2

- Speakers:
- Moody's cut the Sovereign Rating of Ireland by one notch to "Aa2"; Outlook Stable.
- Moody's Hornung: Ireland has turned the corner; No further sovereign rating change in the 'foreseeable' future

- Germany Finance Ministry July Report: Economic recovery to stabilize in H2; Reiterates Gov't view that Q2 GDP growth to be markedly above Q1
- Hungary Econ Min Matolcsv: Reiterates prior view that country will deliver 3.8% deficit goal this year; Will not launch any new austerity measures at this time
Plans to talks with IMF and EU separately by end of year
- (JP) BoJ might consider action if USD remained around the ¥85 level - Nikkei
- (SP) Spain' May bad loans ratio M/M 5.50% v 5.49% prior
- UK Debt Management Office (DMO) Chief: There were no current plans to issue gilts linked to CPI

- Currencies: The Moody's sovereign downgrade of Ireland initially took the Euro to session lows of 1.2870. However, dealers viewed the Moody's action more of bookkeeping as it was lagging the other two agencies in the pace of sovereign downgrades. The EUR/USD moved back to 1.2970 level and has managed to remain steady in the after math of the breakdown between Hungary and the IMF on its 'precautionary' deal. Dealers cited some good Euro interest from Middle Eastern names and option barrier attractions at 1.30 aiding the Euro. The peripheral spreads widened a bit in the session. The Austrian 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) was nearing 100bps level and was wider by over 15bps from Friday due to its country's banking sector exposure to Hungary and the break off between the IMF/EU and Hungary precautionary loan discussion. In Fixed Income Bund and Gilt futures were higher in early trade aided by risk aversion flows in the aftermath of the weak US data last Friday

- Geopolitical:
- Slovakian Finance Chief Miklos stated that a 5.5% deficit this year is an "illusion" and sees the deficit rising to as high as 7% this year; note there is already published data showing that the shortfall in tax and payroll tax revenue will be €1 billion deeper than they had assumed when designing the budget with a 5.5% deficit.

In the Papers:
- In the New York Times, according to some investors, concerns about the EU debt crises have started to ease, pointing to recent bonds auctions by Spain and Portugal resilience to a recent downgrade by Moody's
Economist reported on mixed perception of EU bank stress tests stated that in contrast to the stress tests of the 19 banks in the US last year, EU stress tests are more complicated by both a greater number of banks tested and poor coordination for standards between European governments. Also, the stress tests will be perceived as worthwhile only if some banks fail the tests, but also notes that if too many banks fail, governments will be forced to consider additional bail-out funds.
- According to some analysts mentioned in today's Guardian, banks in Spain, Greece and Germany may have to raise an additional €78.6B following stress test results.

***Looking Ahead ***
- 6:00 (GE) German Bundesbank Monthly Report
- (PO) Portugal Jun Producer Prices M/M: % v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 4.1% prior
- (IS) Israel Jun Leading Indicator M/M: No Est v 0.1% prior
- (AR) Argentina Jul Consumer Confidence: No est v 47.63 prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.9%e v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.5% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Sold Industrial Output M/M: 5.0%e v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: 12.4%e v 14.0% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations for the Base Rate to remain unchanged at 5.25%
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Intl Securities Transactions: C$6.5Be v C$12.4B prior
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Duke
- 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell €8.5B in 8, 12 and 27-week Bills
- 9:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in main 7-day refi operation
- 10:00 (US) Jul NAHB Housing Market Index: 16e v 17 prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia May Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.9%e v 7.6% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.2%e v 7.9%



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