Monday July 19, 2010 - 12:23:57 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts - 19-Jul-2010
USD-CHF 1.0523/26...Buy dips
R: 1.0542 / 1.0597 / / 1.0624
S: 1.0470 / 1.0430-00 / 1.0348
As expected, Dollar-Swiss moved up to touch a high of 1.0534 in the European session today. The pair may move up towards 1.0580-620 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow, before a downmove towards 1.0500-50 over the next couple of days. The suggested Max high and Max low for the day are 1.0597 and 1.0382 respectively.
We will have greater confidence on our bullish view on a close above 1.0600 this week, which will in turn strengthen the chances of the pair honouring the double bottom (slightly distorted by the continuous fall on the pair in the last 2 months) created on the monthly charts, followed by an upmove towrds 1.0900-1.10 in the coming weeks.
USD 10K long at 1.0403, TSL 1.0465 (up from 1.0425), TP Open
GBP-USD @ 1.5316/19...Mixed
R: 1.5352 / 1.5400 / 1.5490-510
S: 1.5270 / 1.5220 / 1.5140
"We continue to hold our morning view on the pair."
Our less preferred outcome has come true. Cable has been trading near the 1.53 figure since the past few sessions. The pair has again broken below the trendline Support on the daily charts and has also broken above a trandline Resistance on the weekly charts. Please note that the 21-month MA (1.5482) is holding as a strong Resistance and we may have to revisit our Bullish stance on the pair if it is unable to break above the 21 MOnth MA in this week.
Immediately we are uncertain of the movement on the pair and do not recommend a trade.
AUD-USD 0.8675/78...Support at 0.8630-00
R: 0.8750-80 / 0.8813 / 0.8867
S: 0.8632 / 0.8582 / 0.8469
Aussie has been silent in the Asian and the European session today. We see good chances of the pair move in the range of 0.8600-700 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow. However, there are chances that the pair may take some Support at 0.8630-550 region in the coming days, which may not be broken immediately. Please note the markets bounced back from a Support at the 100 MA on the 4-hourly charts in the early Asian session today. Additionally, on a fall below 0.8600, the 200 MA (0.8582) on the 4-hourly charts may prove to be an important Support in the short term.
AUD 10K Short at 0.8770, TSL 0.8770 (down from 0.8810), TP Open
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