The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2990
level and was supported around the $1.2870 level.The common currency stopped just short of
testing the US$ 1.3000 figure during the European session and North American
dealers knocked the pair lower.Federal
Reserve Chaiman Bernanke testifies this week following the Fed‚Äôs downward
revisions to economic growth and inflation forecasts and its upward revision to
its unemployment projections.The common
currency tracked U.S. equities higher today as traders responded to some
positive U.S. earnings data and shook off a report British Petroleum‚Äôs well cap
solution in the Gulf of Mexico may be leaking.Data released in the U.S. today saw the July NAHB housing market index
decline to +14 from the revised prior reading of +16.Data to be released tomorrow include June
housing starts and June building permits.In eurozone news, there was a
report today that Germany‚Äôs Hypo Real Estate Holding AG failed its bank stress
test.Results from up to 91 European
bank stress tests will be released on Friday and may impact the euro‚Äôs
direction.There is talk that the
International Monetary Fund will seek to increase the amount of funds it can
lend to US$ 1 trillion from the current level of US$ 750 billion.Data released in the eurozone today saw the
EMU-16 May current account balance widen to ‚Äď‚ā¨$ 5.8 billion from the revised
print of -‚ā¨5.6 billion.Also, EMU-16 May
construction output was off 1.0% m/m and 6.3% y/y.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•87.20
level and was capped around the ¬•86.50 level.An anonymous Bank of Japan source suggested the central bank may
intervene around the ¬•85 level if the pair depreciates to that area and
continues to trade there.Japanese
monetary authorities have not officially intervened for years but they will
clearly not want the pair to risk a move below the ¬•80 figure.Japanese financial markets were closed
overnight and will reopen overnight.Data
to be released in Japan overnight include the May leading index, May coincident
index, and June convenience store sales.The Cabinet Office will release its monthly economic report on
Wednesday.The Nikkei 225 stock index on
Friday lost 2.86% to close at ¬•9,408.36.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•113.05 level and was supported
around the ¬•111.40 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•133.40 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese
yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7787 in the over-the-counter market, up
from CNY 6.7747. Former People‚Äôs Bank of
China adviser Yu Yongding reported China should reduce the amount of U.S.
Dollar holdings in its portfolio.China‚Äôs
foreign exchange reserves totaled US$ 2.454 trillion in the second quarter and
in May, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings to US$ 867.7 billion.PBoC is expected to maintain a relatively
loose monetary policy.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5235 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5350 level.Many data will be released in the U.K.
tomorrow including June public finances, the June M4 money supply, June CBI
total orders, and June CBI business optimism.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Sentance reported a ‚Äúgradual‚ÄĚ
increase in interest rates would be ‚Äúhelpful for the economic recovery.‚ÄĚCable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8505 level and was supported around the
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0535 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0445 level.Data to be released in Switzerland tomorrow
include the June trade balance followed by June money supply data on
Wednesday.Most dealers believe SNB has
been forced to intervene less on account of all of the euro-denominated assets
on its balance sheet but some note the SNB will likely continue to intervene at
opportune levels.U.S. dollar offers are
cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3650 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6010 level.
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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