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Tuesday July 20, 2010 - 10:13:45 GMT
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European Market Update: Peripheral debt auctions failed to inspire confidence this time around (Trade the News)

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 5:58:35 AM

 European Market Update: Peripheral debt auctions failed to inspire confidence this time around


***Economic Data***
- (GR) Greece May Current Account: +€250M v -€3.0B prior
- (GE) Germany Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.1%e
- (SZ) Swiss Jun Trade Balance (CHF): 1.8B v 800M prior; Exports M/M: -6.4 v 1.8% prior; Imports M/M: -9.9% v 13.8% prior
- (JP) Japan Jun Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -1.5% v -3.2% prior
- (AS) Austria May Producer Price Index M/M: 0.8% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.5% prior
- (NV) Netherlands May Consumer Spending: 1.2% v 0.4% prior
- (NV) Netherlands Jul Consumer Confidence: -14 v -18 prior
- (TT) Taiwan Jun Export Orders Y/Y: 22.5% v 21.7%e
- (IT) Italy May Industrial Orders M/M: 3.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 26.6% v 19.2%e
- (IT) Italy May Industrial Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 8.9% v 6.4% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.6%e
- (UK) Jun Public Finances (PSNCR): £20.9B v £16.0Be; Net Borrowing: £14.5B v £13.0Be
- (UK) Jun Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9%e
- (UK) Jun Major Banks Mortgage Approvals: 48K v 52Ke
- (UK) CBI Business Optimism: 10 v 22e Total Order Trends: -16 v -24e
- (SP) Spain May Trade Balance: -€4.2B v -€5.0B prior

Fixed Income:
- (SP) Span Debt Agency sold €5.97B in 12-month and 18-months Bills (SGLT)
- Sold €1.7B in 18-month bills, avg yield at 2.331% v 2.837% prior; bid to-cover: 2.44x v 3.51x prior
- Sold €4.3B in 12-month bills; avg yield at 2.221% v 2.303% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.95x v 1.5x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency sold
81.95B in 13-week Bills v €1.5Be; avg yield 4.05% v 3.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.85x v 4.60x prior
- (US) ECB allotted €201.3B in its main 7-day refi operation at fixed 1.0%
- (IR) Ireland Debt Agency sold €1.5B in 2016 and 2020 bonds; as expected
- Sold €750M in 4.6% Apr 2016 bond; avg yield 4.496% v 4.521% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.6x v 3.1x prior
- Sold €750M in 5.0% Oct 2020 bonds; avg yield 5.537% v 4.688% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.0x v 3.0x prior
- (UK) DMO sold £3.75B in 4.0% 2016 Gilts; avg yield 2.523% v 3.371% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.38x v 1.70x prior

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.9% at 2,610 ; DAX Index -1.1% at 5,944; CAC-40 Index -1.0% at 3,451 and FTSE 100 Index -0.5% at 5,122

Consumer discretionary
- Ryanair reports Q1 Net €93.7M v €113Me, Rev €896.8M v €887Me; Reiterates FY outlook
- Hermes reports Q2 Rev €567M v €533Me; H1 Rev €1.1B v €1.0Be; Raises guidance for FY revenue growth
- William Hill provided trading update; 26-week group net revenue +3% y/y; op profit +43% y/y

- Weatherford International reports Q2 $0.11 v $0.07e, R$2.4B v $2.4Be
- Renewable Energy Reported Q2 EBITDA NOK455M v NOK415M q/q, Rev NOK2.76B v NOK2.7Be
- OMV reported Q2 production 318K BOED v 317K q/q

- Actelion reports Q2 Net CHF121.4M v CHF128Me, Rev CHF523.2M v CHF501Me; Reaffirms 2010 revenue outlook. Obtains option for €10M to acquire Trophos
- Novartis received approval in China for Rasilez a direct renin inhibitor for high blood pressure

- TeliaSonera reports Q2 Net SEK5.2B v SEK5.2Be, Rev SEK27.0B v SEK27.0Be; Revises outlook

- Dialog Semiconductor reports Q2 Net $11.2M v $3.3M y/y, Rev $68.5M v $45.0M y/y. Reaffirmed full year outlook. Industry showing signs of foundry and backend supply constraints which may affect end customer build rate and limit revenue upside and potentially margin levels for 2010.
- Barco reported Q2 Net €4.3M v €6.0Me, EBIT €5.8M v €8.0Me

- Sandvik reported Q2 Net profit SEK2.1B v SEK1.6Be, Rev SEK20.6B v SEK20.6Be
- Alstom reported Q1 Rev €4.7B v €4.8Be
- Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica Enters into an agreement with Flybe under which Flybe will buy up to 140 planes; potential value of the order is $5B

- IG Group reported prelim FY Adj pretax profit £157.6M v £125.9M y/y, Rev £298.6M v £257.1M y/y

- Speakers:
- ECB's Nowotny: There is a general stress test scenario and some stress can be added to that; No direct link between stress test results and option of extending ECB liquidity support.
- Poland Central Bank Chief Belka: Sees Poland 2011
GDP growth of 3.5% as 'modest' with potential to accelerate
- India Central Bank Dep: Any increases in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) will impart difficulties to banks on liquidity
- Thai Central Bank Chief: Effects from civil unrest on tourism no longer an issue for the economy; tourism recovered faster than expected
- Philippines Central Bank gov Tetangco: No urgency to raise rates

- Currencies: The USD rebounded from earlier weakness seen in the European morning as the peripheral debt auctions from Spain, Greece and Ireland failed to inspire confidence. Dealers noting that ECB gov't bond buying was little changed in the latest week coupled with higher funding costs for the corporate front. EUR/USD tested 1.3028 before probing 1.2930 ahead of the NY morning. Similar price action was seen in other European pairs.
GBP/USD back below 1.52 after testing above 1.53

- Geopolitical:
- Slovakian Finance Minister Miklos stated that the country will not agree to extend the European safety net beyond three years or make it permanent.
- Iceland's Supreme Court made banks liable for foreign currency losses on some retail and corporate loans costing banks as much as $4.3B, which equates to about a third of the country's 2009 economic production.
UK Chancellor Osborne is seeking to simplify the British tax system with the Office of Tax Simplification to encourage more business investment in the country.

In the Papers:
- Bundesbank and German regulator BaFin are investigating the activities of the European-Iranian Trade Bank AG, also known as EIH, as it has done more than $1 billion worth of business on behalf of Iranian firms according to an article in the Wall Street Journal.
- In the New York Times there was commentary on how banks in
Germany and France are the most exposed to the EU debt crisis. Hypo Real Estate has stated that its exposure to government debt from various EU states amount to more than $97 billion.
- The Telegraph's international business editor Evans-Pritchard examined the implications for the EU following the breakdown in talks between the IMF and
Hungary, citing Danske Bank analyst, that the events in Hungary are a warning of what may happen in the Baltic countries later this year and in other EU countries which have adopted tough austerity measures.

***Looking Ahead ***
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jul IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Core Inflation M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jun Housing Starts: 580Ke v 593K prior; Building Permits: 575Ke v 574K prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations for interest rates to be raise by 25bps to 0.75%
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jul Consumer Confidence: No est v -9.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo testifies on Financial regulation in Senate
- 14:30 (US) Fed's Roseman on coins and currency
- 16:30 (US) EIA Weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Jul 18th: No est v -44 prior

NY Update
***Economic Data***

***Looking Ahead***

July 20th
- (GR) Greece May Current Account: No est v -€3.0B prior
- (AR) Argentina Jun Budget Balance: No est v 3.)0B prior
- 1:00 (JP) Japan May Final Leading Index: No est v 98.7 prior; Coincident Index: No est v 101.2 prior
- 2:00 (GE) Germany Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior
- 2:15 (SZ) Swiss Jun Trade Balance (CHF): No est v 820M prior; Exports M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Imports M/M: No est v 13.2% prior
- 3:00 (TH) Thailand Customs Trade Balance: $1.3Be v $2.2B prior; Exports Y/Y: 34.3%e v 42.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: 34.7%e v 55.1% prior
- 3:00 (JP) Japan Jun Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -3.2% prior
- 3:10 (AS) Austria May Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 3:30 (NV) Netherlands May Consumer Spending: No est v 0.2% prior
- 3:30 (NV) Netherlands Jul Consumer Confidence: No est v -18 prior
- 4:00 (TT) Taiwan Jun Export Orders Y/Y: 21.7%e v 34.0% prior
- 4:00 (IT) Italy May Industrial Orders M/M: 0.2%e v 4.7% prior; Y/Y: 19.2%e v 20.6% prior
- 4:00 (IT) Italy May Industrial Sales M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.4% prior
- 4:30 (HK) Hong Kong Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.6%e v 4.6% prior
- 4:30 (UK) Jun Public Finances (PSNCR): £16.0Be v £12.0B prior; Net Borrowing: £13.0Be v £16.0B prior
- 4:30 (UK) Jun Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.8% prior
- 4:30 (UK) Jun Major Banks Mortgage Approvals: 52Ke v 51K prior
- 6:00 (UK) CBI Business Optimism: 22e v 24 prior; Total Order Trends: -24e v -23 prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jul IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Core Inflation M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jun Housing Starts: 580Ke v 593K prior; Building Permits: 575Ke v 574K prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations for interest rates to be raise by 25bps to 0.75%
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jul Consumer Confidence: No est v -9.0 prior
- 16:30 (US) EIA Weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Jul 18th: No est v -44 prior


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