Wednesday March 30, 2005 - 00:35:54 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 30th March 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2954 ... 1.2970 ... 1.3005 ... 1.3024
Support....: 1.2906 ... 1.2867 ... 1.2832 ... 1.2817
We look for a peak at 1.2970 and for the downtrend to resume
We have seen the expected recovery which has reached 1.2954 but we do feel there is one final rally before the downtrend resumes. We therefore look for 1.2906-15 to continue supporting and for gains to the 1.1970 level but will expect this to cap. Thus only directly above 1.1970 would take price to 1.3005 with 1.3085 the next larger resistance which, if seen, should stall gains.
We have seen the anticipated pullback although this has peaked at 1.2954 - and thus just below our favored 1.1970 target. While we do feel there should be a further rally to test 1.1970 we must also be prepared in case the 1.1954 high actually completed the pullback. Thus 1.1960-70 should be a good selling area or should the 1.2906 and then 1.2896 levels break we feel it would highlight the risk of direct resumption lower. We would then expect a test at 1.2855 at least with 1.2817-32 also a possible stalling point. Below there would extend to 1.2748.
Elliott Wave Comments:
29th March 2005
Loss of 1.2927 means we need to re-assess the structure of the decline and it looks like we shall see en extended move lower. This now counts the 1.3139 low as Wave [i] and the corrective high at 1.3218 as Wave [ii]. From there we feel we have only seen three waves and thus we look for Wave -iv- to reach the 1.2966-70 area from where a move down to 1.2730-48 is expected in Wave [a] of Wave [iii]. Further out we see a potential target at 1.1668 being a 161.8% extension of Wave [i]. We shall review as price approaches.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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