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Wednesday July 21, 2010 - 09:58:00 GMT
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European Market Update: German new 30-year Bund auction undersubscribed (Trade the News)

Wednesday, July 21, 2010 5:50:39 AM

 European Market Update: German new 30-year Bund auction undersubscribed


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Cabinet Monthly Economic Report: Leaves economic assessment unchanged; economy is picking up with foundation for a self-sustaining recovery
- (SZ) Swiss Jun M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.7% v 7.5% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Q2 Real Estate Index Family Homes: 378.7 v 375.8 prior
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Votes 7 to 1 to leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.50% with Sentence dissenting again; Unanimous vote to maintain the Asset Purchase Target (APT) at £200B (same votes as in June)
- 5:00 (MA) Malaysia Jun CPI Y/Y: % v 1.7%e v 1.6% prior
- (IC) Iceland Q2 Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 7.6% prior
- (IC) Iceland Jun Wage Index M/M: 2.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.1% v 4.0% prior

Fixed Income:
- (GE) Germany Debt Agency soldl €3.2B in new 3.25% Jul 2042 Bund; avg yield 3.33% v 3.895% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.2x v 1.3x prior; Bundesbank received €3.8B in bids of the €4.0B sought
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sellsl €1.25B in 12M T-bills; Avg Yield 2.452% v 1.036%; Bid-to-cover: 1.3x v 3.2x prior

- Light to to cover in European auctions in session.
- BoJ Yamaguchi: Signs of overheating in emerging market economies increasing while downward pressure on US and EU economies .
- Earnings: While getting some bottom line beats, problem is top line revenues lack of growth leaving mkts a bit overly optimistic in hope mode.
- Stress Tests: Markets continue to ponder validity. Maybe skews € negatively as one failure now is bad, and if all good, pressure on €uribors should fade and bring rates down. However ->
- S&P 100 put/call ratio at 5-year lows. Such readings are usually a positive indicator for equity markets within a couple weeks. Bears beware

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.7% at 2,670 ; DAX Index +1.4% at 6,051; CAC-40 Index +1.9% at 3,532 and FTSE 100 Index +1.7% at 5,225

Consumer discretionary
- Marine Harvest reported Q2 op profit €730M v €721Me, Rev NOK3.6B v NOK3.5Be
- TomTom reported Q2 Net €34M v €34Me, Rev €362M v €366Me
- Swedish Match Reported Q2 Net SEK636M v SEK620Me, Op profit SEK945M v SEK900Me, Rev SEK3.7B v SEK3.7Be
- Reckitt Benckiser offers to acquire SSL International at 1,163p/shr cash, deal valued at £2.54B (premium over the close at 32.8%); expected to be immediately accretive to earnings

- Orkla reported Q2 Op profit NOK937M v NOK334M y/y, Rev NOK16B v NOK16Be
- Fiat reported Q2 Net €90M v €118Me, Rev €14.8B v €13Be; Confirms 2010 targets but may raise them after Q3
- United Technologies Hamilton Sundstrand Announces Nearly $300M in New Business at Farnborough Air Show
- Wartsila reported Q2 EBIT €117M v €112Me; Rev €1.1B v €1.2Be

-Telenor reported Q1 Net NOK1.04B v NOK1.4Be, Rev NOK23.95B v NOK24Be, Organic sales growth of 3%

-Julius Baer reported H1 Net CHF261M v CHF245Me, Rev CHF v CHF881Me, AUM CHF166B, +8 %y/y
-Nordea reported Q2 Net €537M v €522Me, Op profit €730M v €723Me, Net interest income €1.25B v €1.31B y/y
- Land Securities provided Q1 trading statement: Q1 total property sales £302.9M, at 2.6% above March 2010 valuation

- Pharming reported H1 net loss €28.0M v €15.1M y/y

- Svenska Cellulosa reported Q2 Op profit SEK2.44B v SEK2.4B y/y, Rev SEK27.6B v SEK27.9B y/y
-Johnson Matthey provided trading update: 3 month to June ex precious metals +32% y/y, underlying profit before tax +47% y/y
- Hochshild reported Q2 production at 6.8M attributable silver equivalent ounces; +12% q/q
- New World Resources reached price agreement on coking coal for Q3; to raise prices for coking coal by 17% to €158/metric ton; for coal by 43% to €362/metric ton

- Speakers:
- Poland Central Bank's Glapinksi: Reiterates view that interest rates might need to rise unless there is tightening in fiscal policy
- Swiss National Bank (SNB): Forecasted H1 loss of CHF4B on Euro investments. The central bank noted that sharp appreciation of the franc currency, particularly against the euro, came to exchange rate loss by more than CHF14B
- BoJ Dep Gov Yamaguchi: JPY currency appreciation could effect exports; BOJ does not consider policy based on specific currency levels
- BoJ's Dep Gov Nishimura : Recent strength in yen are being driven by European sovereign concerns and US economic outlook
- National Hurricane Center (NHC): Sees 70% chance of tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours v 60% prior; storm system located around Donimican Republic
- Hungary Central Bank's Simor: Reaching fiscal stability should not hurt growth
- Hungary Fiscal Council: Gov't plans to lower taxes are a risk to the primary budget balance from 2011 outward; sees absence of measures to offset tax revenue declines
- Iran OPEC Gov: Sees room for higher oil prices; Flexible regarding currency used for oil trade
- Asian Development Bank (ADB) Director Madhur: Cannot rule out interest rate increase by China this year
- German Chancellor Merkel: Confidence in banking sector needs to be created through bank stress tests
- European banks stress tests will use three bank stress-test scenarios according to German papers.

- Currencies:
- The European morning began with some extreme volatility in the GBP currency as the GBP/USD fell precipitously from 1.5300 to below 1.52 in the course of a minute and then back above the 1.53 handle. Dealers attributed the sharp price movement to 'fat finger trade' at a Dutch bank. Reportedly the trader sought to sell £3M in a trade and instead hit 3 yards to sell (£3B). The market talk was that over £500M was executed before the error was realized and the order terminated.
The EUR/USD again had some problems staying above the 1.29 level in the session with chatter that the SNB was 'on top' in the pair. The Euro also seemed weighed upon by some growing concerns over the validity of the pending EU stress tests. One dealer noted that the Euro might be skewed negatively as one bank failure at this time would be bad flowing the glowing comments from various government officials all week. The EUR/USD at session lows of 1.2835 ahead of the NY morning. The undersubscribed German Bund auction and low bid-to-cover in Portugal 12-month Bill auction weighing upon sentiment.
- The JPY currency was firmer against its major pairs. The currency saw its share of commentary by the BOJ that the yen strength was being driven by European sovereign concerns and US economic outlook. Dep Gov Yamaguchi noted that a firm JPY currency could affect the county's exports but added he did not consider policy based on specific currency levels. Dealers noted that the 85.00 level continued to be a potential pivot point in the pair to see if the BOJ would show some teeth.
- The Fed testimony later today could be a USD bearish scenario as Bernanke balances weaker economic growth recognition and possible responses

- Geopolitical:
- Geopolitical: Britain's Unite Union rejected British Airway's recent offer of a pay rise of 2.9% next year and 3% the year after. As a result, a new strike could commence in September.
- NYU Economist Roubini commented that the US growth is to slow to 1.5% in H2 of 2010 and into 2011, while the EU slowdown will be worse with the possibility of a decrease to zero growth by year end.
- US Secretary of State Clinton announced new sanctions against North Korea, including asset freezes on individuals, and requests for countries not to purchase banned North Korean items.

- In the Papers:
- FT Lex commented on yen strengthening and noted that Japanese policy makers are powerless to stop its strengthening of the JPY currency. Article took a historical approach and notes the lack of impact that rhetoric and intervention by policy makers has had on yen rise.
- According to the Telegraph, citing Nomura analysts, banking institutions in the UK face a £390B funding gap.
- According to the Wall Street Journal, four out of nine French air traffic controller unions went on strike late last night over European plans to create several large air traffic control regions. They are not expected to return to work until Thursday morning.
- London Telegraph editor Evans-Pritchard commented on the recent declines in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stating that the downward trend correlated with sharp drops in other indicators such as OECD leading indicators, US housing data and data from railroad and trucking companies.

***Looking Ahead ***
- Plethora of US earnings yet to come: Abbot Labs [ABT], Blackrosck [BLK], EMC [EMC], Freeport Mcmoran [FCX], Glaxo [GSK], Coca Cola [KO], US Airways [LCC], Altria [MO], Morgan Stanley [MS], US Bancorp [USB], Textron [TXT], United Technology [UTX] and Wells fargo [WFC] expected before the NY equity open
- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK7.0B 5% 2019 bonds
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jul 16th: No est v -2.9% prior
- 7:30 (HU) Hungary PM Orban meets with German Chancellor Merkel
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Wholesale Sales M/M: 0.4%e v -0.3% prior
- 8:30 (IT) Bank of Italy Tremonti
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Retail Sales: 5.3%e v -0.1% prior
- 10:00 (AU) Australia Q2 NAB Business Confidence
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly energy inventories: Crude -1Me; Gasoline: +1Me; Distillate: +1.6Me; Utilization: 90.2%e
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke monetary report to Senate banking panel (Note: the time changed from 10:00am ET due to earlier signing of Financial Services Regulation
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations to raise the SELIC Target by 75bps to 11.00%



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