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Wednesday July 21, 2010 - 10:11:23 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Consolidation Trade

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Consolidation Trade

10:00 GMT- July 21 (global-view.com) The EUR is trading lower across the board as markets look to be in a consolidation frame of mind after the recent correction in the USD seemed to have run its course by yesterday. In the absence of fundamental news, forex markets are back following equities. Equities have been undermined by underlying numbers that suggest that the U.S. economy is slowing. 

There is a lot of chatter about the European stress tests later this week, but we would be surprised to see any market reaction. The results are already being selectively leaked. There are all sorts of questions about the tests as the credit standards are not being uniformly enforced within Europe. The BOJ warned again today that it is closely watching the USD. 

In light of the recent bearish economic outlook from the Fed, all eyes will be on the testimony this afternoon by Chairman Bernanke. Risk trades have not been working consistently recently. However, another key focus of  Forex Trading is on fixed income markets. 

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  In North America, the U.S. will see Weekly Mortgage Statistics and Energy Inventories. Fed Chairman Bernanke is slated to testify.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:07
EUR 1.2884 -61 JPY 112.67 28 JPY 133.54 135
GBP 1.5271 45 GBP 84.37 -65 CHF 160.77 9
CHF 1.0528 -25 CHF 1.3564 -97 CHF vs.    
JPY 87.45 63       JPY 83.06 79

The EURUSD is now easier on the day and the GBPUSD is steady. EURGBP is up. Traders are maintaining a close watch on the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is has fallen. SNB intervention tactics are confusing. Periodically, the SNB has taken a strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.  EURCHF is estimated to have resulted in EUR 8bln in forex losses for the SNB.

The USDJPY is down and the EURJPY cross is lower. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:07
CAD 1.0448 -104 AUD 0.8829 128 Gold 1192 9.45
CNY 6.7791 1 NZD 0.7157 93 WTI 77.15 0.56

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are up vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates again by 25bps. The BOC sent mixed signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is setting up for an August tightening. The RBNZ is also currently in a tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We have favored AUD, CAD, gold and oil recently, but doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed to higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.95%, 0 bps. 

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           20:07
NIK 9300 -108 DAX 5967 -42 DJIA 10226 53
HSI 20265 174 FTSE 5139 -9 S&P 1083 10
SSEC 2539 64 SMI 6123 0 NAS 2221 21
ASX 4404 45       TSE 11573 65

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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