U.S. Stock Futures Point toward Sharply Higher Opening
equity markets are called sharply higher this morning following a strong surge
to the upside, triggered by better-than-expected European industrial orders.
All of this action reversed the huge sell-off from Thursday which was ignited
by comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke, who described the economic outlook as
Stocks were trading flat to slightly lower overnight when
data was released showing that industrial orders in the Euro Zone rose 3.8% I
May from the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, sales surged
22.7%. Both results exceeded pre-report guesses. Economists were looking for a
flat industrial growth number and a 20% gain in sales. Aggressive traders reacted
to the reports with enthusiasm driving up demand for higher risk assets,
sending the Dollar plunging and equity markets soaring.
The key will be whether U.S. investors jump on board after
yesterdayâ€™s huge sell-off. U.S.
investors have been hesitant to drive equity markets higher following a sharply
higher opening. The tendency in the past has been to fade a sharply higher
opening, while waiting for a reasonable pull-back. U.S. traders will most likely look
for value especially after Bernanke painted a bearish picture with his
testimony on Wednesday.
Today, traders will get a chance to react to weekly initial
claims as well as potentially â€śrally-bustingâ€ť existing home sales and leading
economic indicators.Chairman Bernanke
will also begin a second day of testimony at 8:30 a.m. central just as the
equity markets open in New York.
The markets are expected to be volatile today given
yesterdayâ€™s action and sudden turnaround last night.
Bernankeâ€™s testimony drove September Treasury Bonds to a new
high for the year on Wednesday as they solidified the thought that the Fed is
likely to keep interest rates at historically low levels for a prolonged period
of time. Last nightâ€™s development in Europe is
pressuring the Treasurys this morning as traders shed so-called â€śsafer assetsâ€ť.
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower across the board as trader
demand for risky assets soared following the news out of Europe.
The release of the bullish industrial report combined with Bernankeâ€™s dovish
tone sends a signal to investors that the European Central Bank is moving
closer to a possible rate hike while the Fed is still struggling with the
possibility of a double-dip recession. Furthermore, the bullish Euro Zone
numbers is a sign that the ECB is likely to refrain from applying additional
stimulus measures while the weakening U.S. economic data means the Fed is
likely to consider a second round of quantitative easing.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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