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Thursday July 22, 2010 - 22:30:28 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Friday 24 July 2010

News and views

Risk markets soar. The start of a global surge in risk appetite can be traced to around early Europe, when reports said EU regulators were considering releasing the bank stress tests earlier to allow European markets to react. Other supportive factors included a stream of rosy US company earnings, consensus-beating US homes sales data, and the Fed Chairman's continued testimony where he elaborated on his dovish remarks yesterday as well as the policy easing step of cutting interest rates on excess reserves (the Fed is carefully deliberating on this, aware of the market distorting potential). The S&P 500 (including futures) rose without interruption to be up 2.5% currently. Commodities followed equities to be 2.0% higher (oil +3.5%, copper +2.4%). US 10yr treasury yields also followed equities, up 5bp. US 3mth Libor was set at a hair below 0.50% for the first time since 25 May, pushing Eurodollar futures 3bp lower in yield equivalent.

The US dollar was dented by both softer short-maturity US yields and safe-haven dumping. EUR rose from 1.2750 to 1.2933, also helped by stronger PMI data. Safe-haven yen was shunned, USD/JPY rising from 86.50 to 87.20. GBP was also helped by data - retail sales - rising from 1.5150 to 1.5300. CAD strength was only briefly interrupted by a weak retail sales report, global sentiment resulting in a 1.0500 to 1.0350 move in USD/CAD.

AUD ploughed through 0.8860 resistance, from 0.8767 to 0.8953 without interruption. NZD rose from 0.7100 to 0.7273. AUD/NZD barely changed around 1.2320.

US existing home sales fell 5.1% in June to an annualised rate of 5.37m. The second consecutive fall highlights the underlying weakness that is re-emerging in the US housing market given that the data would still include a boost from the first-time buyer tax credit (before it was extended). There was also a rise in inventories with supply up to 8.9 months worth, the highest since August 2008.  

US leading indicators contracted by 0.2% in June, following the 0.5% gain posted in May. The clearly slowing index adds to evidence of a US slowdown in the second half of the year. That said, the fact that the absolute level of the index (109.8) remains 4.5% above the peak it reached before the previous recession suggests this indicator is not yet implying a double-dip.

US initial jobless claims rose to 464k during the week ending 17 July, an increase of 37k on the previous week. July data historically are distorted due to seasonal factors from auto factory shutdowns so we await a clearer picture regarding the underlying trend over the next month.

Japanese all-industry index rose by 0.2% in May after a 1.9% increase in April. This leaves the all-industry index 3.4% higher than a year ago.

Euroland PMI surveys both came in stronger-than-expected with the manufacturing survey showing an increase to 56.5 from 55.6, while the services survey posted 56.0 from 55.5 in the advance July reading. Within the manufacturing survey, the breakdown was positive with increases in new orders and employment. The services index also registered decent gains in new orders and employment. Q3 surveys appear to be signalling a healthy level of activity so far in the Eurozone (expect for the ZEW survey) but whether this is sustainable in the face of developments in the peripheral countries and financial market sentiment remains to be seen. Within the national breakdown, there were big improvements for Germany (manufacturing up 2.8pts to 61.2 and services up 2.5pts to 57.3) but French data were more mixed (manufacturing down to 53.7 but services up to 61.3).

UK retail sales surprised to the upside in June increasing 0.7% on the month while ex-auto fuel was up a robust 1.0%. Sales are likely to have been boosted by the extra spending associated with the World Cup. The implied deflator fell to its lowest since Nov to 1.3%.

Canadian retail sales declined 0.2% in May after a 2.2% contraction in April. Stripping out autos, sales were down 0.1% on the month. The fall was driven by a 4.1% fall in sales at building material and garden equipment stores while gasoline station store sales were down 2.3%.

Outlook

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:  The domestic sessions should maintain the firm tone, although price action around tonight's EU stress test release will be the key. AUD is overbought intraday and needs to pull back to 0.8860 support before challenging 0.9000. NZD is also overbought and should be contained by 0.7200 and 0.7300 before Europe opens.

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

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