The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2930
level and was supported around the $1.2735 level.The common currency reversed yesterday‚Äôs
intraday losses as risk appetite improved, driving some global equity markets
higher.Data released in the U.S. today
saw weekly initial jobless claims climb to 464,000 from a revised 427,000 while
continuing jobless claims climbed to 4.487 million from 4.710 million.Also, June existing home sales were off 5.1%
m/m to an annualized 5.37 million units while June leading indicators came off 0.2%
from the previous tally of 0.5%.Also,
the May house price index printed at +0.5% m/m, down from +0.9%.Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke called for
an extension of the Bush tax cuts and cited the elevated U.S. unemployment rate
as the biggest problem in the U.S. economy.Bernanke also cited additional monetary easing options including
reducing the rate paid on banks‚Äô reserves held at the Fed and purchasing more
securities.New York Fed President
Dudley today said the ‚Äúroad to recovery is turning out to be a bit bumpy.‚ÄĚIn contrast, former Fed Chairman Greenspan said
the Bush tax cuts should not be continued and noted an end to cuts ‚Äúwould
probably‚ÄĚ slow economic growth.In eurozone news, eurozone data
released today saw the July PMI composite improve to 56.7 from the prior
reading of 56.0 while EMU-16 PMI services and manufacturing improved.Also, EMU-16 May industrial new orders were
up 3.8% m/m and 22.7% y/y.Moreover,
EMU-16 July consumer confidence improved to -14 from the revised reading of
-17.German July PMI manufacturing and
services improved and data to be released tomorrow include July Ifo business
sentiment.French data released today
saw July PMI manufacturing decline while PMI services moved higher.French July consumer confidence remained
unchanged at -39.Results of stress
tests on up to 91 European banks will be reduced tomorrow.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•86.35
level and was capped around the ¬•87.20 level. The pair continued to inch lower as traders
tested the resolve of the Japanese government to intervene in a bid to stop the
yen‚Äôs appreciation.The government has
not officially intervened for several years but there are increasing whispers
that Japanese monetary authorities will try to protect the ¬•85 level.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi
suggested the central bank is considering other policy options, noting ‚ÄúWays to
strengthen the foundations for economic growth are not necessarily limited to
the measure the bank has introduced.We
will continue to make sufficient considerations while exploring various
possibilities.‚ÄĚ Minutes from the June BoJ Policy Board were released yesterday
in which policymakers said the central bank should consider additional policy
options other than the ¬•3 trillion loan scheme recently announced. Vice finance
minister Ikeda said the government ‚Äúwants to avoid excessive gains in the yen‚ÄĚ
while trade minister Naoshima said the yen‚Äôs gains pose a threat to economic growth.The government‚Äôs ability to provide
additional fiscal stimulus is limited by its commitment to cap annual fiscal
spending at ¬•71 trillion.Former BoJ
Governor Fukui cited elevated global financial uncertainty.Data released in Japan overnight saw May
all-industry activity index decline to +0.2% from the revised April print of
+1.9%.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.62%
to close at ¬•9,220.88.U.S. dollar bids
are cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•112.70 level and was supported around the ¬•110.00 figure.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ¬•133.25 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.75 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7797 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7767. Premier Wen said policy stability should be
carried forth in the second half of the year.There are rumours the Chinese government could ease lending controls and
Wen said China may ‚Äúimprove‚ÄĚ stimulus measures to boost domestic
consumption.Ratings agency S&P said
Chinese banks are facing escalating credit risks and non-performing loan
growth.PBoC also said it will seek to
avoid major fluctuations in the yuan‚Äôs exchange rate.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5295 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5150 level.Data released in the U.K. today saw June headline
retail sales climb 0.7% m/m and 1.3% y/y while the ex-autos component was up
1.0% m/m and 3.1% y/y.Data to be
released tomorrow include Q2 gross domestic product and June BBA loans for
house purchases.Minutes from the July
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting were released yesterday in
which policymakers voted 7-to-1 to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5%.The minutes read ‚ÄúOn balance, most members
thought that it was appropriate to leave the stance of monetary policy
unchanged. The committee considered arguments in favour of a modest easing in
the stance of monetary policy. The softening in the medium-term outlook for GDP
growth over recent months would put further downwards pressure on inflation,
once the impact of temporary factors had waned.‚ÄĚ MPC member Sentance voted
again to raise interest rates.There is
talk of a possible three-way split on the MPC this year if one or more
policymakers voted to expand policy accommodation.Some believe the MPC may resort to increasing
its asset purchase program. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8465 level and was supported around the
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0395 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0515 level.Data to be released in Switzerland on 27 July
include the June UBS consumption indicator.UBS reported the Swiss National Bank may intervene again if the euro/
franc rate falls ‚Äúsharply.‚ÄĚSNB reported
its euro holdings doubled in the second quarter on intervention.Most dealers believe SNB has been forced to
intervene less on account of all of the euro-denominated assets on its balance
sheet but some note the SNB will likely continue to intervene at opportune
levels.U.S. dollar offers are cited
around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3460 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5850 level.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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