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Friday July 23, 2010 - 09:46:22 GMT
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European Market Update: As good as it gets??? German IFO and UK GDP data (Trade the News)

Friday, July 23, 2010 5:43:36 AM

 European Market Update: As good as it gets??? German IFO and UK GDP data


***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Jun Consumer Spending M/M: -1.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v 0.5%e
- (FR) France July Business Survey Overall Demand: 17 v 9 prior
- (SP) Spain Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e
- (AS) Austria May Industrial Production M/M: % v 2.5% prior; Y/Y: % v 6.9% prior
- (IT) Italy Jul Consumer Confidence: 105.6 v 104.0e
- (IT) Italy May Retail Sale M/M: -0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v 0.1%e
- (GE) Germany July IFO - Business Climate: 106.2 v 101.5e; Current Assessment: 106.8 v 101.8e; Expectations: 105.5 v 101.6e
- (PD) Poland Jun Retail Sales M/M: 4.1% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 4.2%e
- (PD) Poland Jun Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 11.6%e
- (TT) Taiwan Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 24.3% v 22.0%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 10.5% v 9.8%e
- (UK) Q2 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.6%e (highest since Mar 2006); Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.1%e (first positive reading since Jun 2008)
- (UK) May Index of Services (3mth/3mth): 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Jun BBA Loans for House Purchase: 34.8K v 37.0Ke
Fixed Income:
- (SA) South Africa to sell ZAR600M in index linked bonds

- Notes/Observations:

- German IFO rises by largest amount since German unification and at three-year highs. UK GDP beats estimates.
- Risk traders lined up behind bullish technical outlook for copper.
- Big miss at
- EU Stress tests: Dealers noting that what should happen and what will happen are two different things. Sugar coated results should continue to aid the equities and Euro currency

- As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.1% at 2,717 ; DAX Index +0.3% at 6,163; CAC-40 Index +0.2% at 3,609 and FTSE 100 Index -0.3% at 5,300

Consumer Discretionary
- USG People NV [USG.NV] reported Q2 EBITA €19M v €18Me, Rev €747M v €732Me
- Television Francaise [TFI.FR] reported H1 Net €74M v €49M y/y, Op profit €104M v €38M y/y, Rev €1.3B v €1.1B y/y; Raises FY10 sales growth of 7% v 4% prior (implies €2.53B v €2.4B y/y)

- Akza Nobel [AKZA.NV] reported Q2 Net €273M v €222Me, EBITDA €614M v €557Me, Rev €3.9B v €3.7Be


- Ericsson [ERICB.SW] reported Q2 SEK Net1.9B v SEK2.7Be, Operating profit SEK5.3B v SEK5.8Be Rev SEK48B v SEK51Be
- Vodafone provided trading update: Q1 Rev £11.3B v £11Be; Reiterates FY11 outlook

- Betsson [BETSB.SW] reported Q2 Rev SEK366.1M v SEK286.4M y/y
- British Petroleum [BP.UK] provided Gulf of Mexico Update: MC252 well continues to be shut-in

- United Utilities [UU.UK] provided trading update: Current trading is in line with the group's expectations and reflects the impact of the 4.3% real price decrease for 2010/11, continuing revenue pressures from reduced water volumes, ongoing bad debt cost pressures and an expected increase in property rates, partly offset by a reduction in power costs.

- Speakers:
- Several Spanish banks to fail stress test -El Pais
India government advisor Rangarajan: Monetary policy should operate with a bias towards tightening to tame inflation. July headline inflation unlikely to move above 11%; Sees it moving back below 10% by September
- China PBoC signs bilateral three-year
CNY30B currency swap agreement Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) (eighth bilateral deal since Dec 2008)
- IFO's Sinn: Notes the largest rise in IFO since German unification. Capacity utilization only slightly below long-term average
- IFO Abberger: IFO survey saw improvements from all sectors (including industry, construction and trade); Strong euro currency swings created some problems for firms, but export optimism similar to prior month
- UK Chancellor Osborne: UK GDP data indicated that private sector contributed all but 0.1% of Q2 growth
- China Gov agree to fine-tune policy to increase growth and to rely primarily on fiscal steps to support economic growth.
China is particularly concerned over Europe's outlook

- Currencies: The Euro started the session on a soft note after Spanish press report stated that a few banks would fail the stress tests. The EUR/USD tested 1.2865 before stabilizing. However dealers suspected that the European data releases for the session would likely be in line with the recent trend of beating expectations and they were not disappointed. The EUR/USD surged over 50 pips after a stronger than expected German IFO data to test above 1.2930/. The GBP/USD pair soared towards 1.54 after the strong UK GDP showing.
- The focus will focus on the release of the EU stress tests after the European close. Dealers feel that a 'truthful' scenario would should relieve some of the pressure on the euribors and the Euro currency should weaken. Sugar-coated results would aid risk appetite and benefit the euro. The 1.30 target appears back-in-play as the NY morning approaches. A break of that psychological level could bode for a test towards 1.32 area.

- Geopolitical:
- The
UK government published questions on the Alternative Voting (AV) referendum, which are part of the coalition agreement; the referendum to occur on 5th May. ***Following the release of UK economic data today, Chancellor Osborne indicated that the private sector contributed all but 0.1% of Q2 growth, and further stated that the GDP data shows that now is the time to deal with deficit. ***North Korea publically stated that joint US/South Korea military drills violates its sovereignty, and vowed physical response against the steps imposed by the United States.

- In The Papers:
Telegraph, Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA) investigated a director who sold shares two days before it issued a major profits warming last month.
- The Guardian, UK National Housing Federation warned that 750K people are at risk of losing their homes when the government changes housing benefits in April 2011
- UK Energy Minister Huhne was noted in the Financial Times as stating that Britain will 'very likely' face an energy crisis within the next ten years that could trigger economic volatility.

***Looking Ahead ***

- 6:00 (IR) Ireland May Trade Balance: € €2.9B prior
- 6:00 (EU) ECB's Tumpel-Gugerall speaks in London
- 7:00 (RU) Russia Medvedev meets Italy's Berlusconi
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.4% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Jun CPI Core M/M 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.8% prior
- 7:45 (IC) Iceland to sell 3.8% 2021 I/L and 8.75% 2019 bonds
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jul Business Confidence: -8.0e v -7.7 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: $110.0Me v $ prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Unemployment Rate: 5.1%e v 5.1% prior
- 12:30 (EU) EU Regulator CEBS to release 'summary of the 91 bank-by-bank results, sorted by country'
- 13:00 (EU) EU Regulator CEBS press conference and Q&A
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Trade Balance: $1.5Be v $1.9B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest rate Decision: Unanimous analyst expectations is for the Overnight Lending Rate to remain steady at 3.00%



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