European Market Update: As good as it gets??? German IFO and UK GDP data (Trade the News)
Friday, July 23, 2010
European Market Update: As good as it gets??? German IFO and UK GDP data
***Economic Data*** - (FR) France Jun Consumer Spending M/M: -1.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v 0.5%e - (FR) France July Business Survey Overall Demand: 17 v 9 prior - (SP) Spain Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e - (AS) Austria May Industrial Production M/M: % v 2.5% prior; Y/Y: % v 6.9% prior - (IT) Italy Jul Consumer Confidence: 105.6 v 104.0e - (IT) Italy May Retail Sale M/M: -0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v 0.1%e - (GE) Germany July IFO - Business Climate: 106.2 v 101.5e; Current Assessment: 106.8 v 101.8e; Expectations: 105.5 v 101.6e - (PD) Poland Jun Retail Sales M/M: 4.1% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 4.2%e - (PD) Poland Jun Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 11.6%e - (TT) Taiwan Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 24.3% v 22.0%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 10.5% v 9.8%e - (UK) Q2 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.6%e (highest since Mar 2006); Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.1%e (first positive reading since Jun 2008) - (UK) May Index of Services (3mth/3mth): 0.8% v 0.7%e - (UK) Jun BBA Loans for House Purchase: 34.8K v 37.0Ke Fixed Income: - (SA) South Africa to sell ZAR600M in index linked bonds
- German IFO rises by largest amount since German unification and at three-year highs. UK GDP beats estimates. - Risk traders lined up behind bullish technical outlook for copper. - Big miss at AMZN - EU Stress tests: Dealers noting that what should happen and what will happen are two different things. Sugar coated results should continue to aid the equities and Euro currency
Equities - As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.1% at 2,717 ; DAX Index +0.3% at 6,163; CAC-40 Index +0.2% at 3,609 and FTSE 100 Index -0.3% at 5,300
Consumer Discretionary - USG People NV [USG.NV] reported Q2 EBITA â‚¬19M v â‚¬18Me, Rev â‚¬747M v â‚¬732Me - Television Francaise [TFI.FR] reported H1 Net â‚¬74M v â‚¬49M y/y, Op profit â‚¬104M v â‚¬38M y/y, Rev â‚¬1.3B v â‚¬1.1B y/y; Raises FY10 sales growth of 7% v 4% prior (implies â‚¬2.53B v â‚¬2.4B y/y)
Materials - Akza Nobel [AKZA.NV] reported Q2 Net â‚¬273M v â‚¬222Me, EBITDA â‚¬614M v â‚¬557Me, Rev â‚¬3.9B v â‚¬3.7Be
Industrials - Saab AB [SAABB.SW
Telecom - Ericsson [ERICB.SW] reported Q2 SEK Net1.9B v SEK2.7Be, Operating profit SEK5.3B v SEK5.8Be Rev SEK48B v SEK51Be - Vodafone provided trading update: Q1 Rev Â£11.3B v Â£11Be; Reiterates FY11 outlook
Technology - Betsson [BETSB.SW] reported Q2 Rev SEK366.1M v SEK286.4M y/y Energy - British Petroleum [BP.UK] provided Gulf of Mexico Update: MC252 well continues to be shut-in
Utilities - United Utilities [UU.UK] provided trading update: Current trading is in line with the group's expectations and reflects the impact of the 4.3% real price decrease for 2010/11, continuing revenue pressures from reduced water volumes, ongoing bad debt cost pressures and an expected increase in property rates, partly offset by a reduction in power costs.
- Speakers: - Several Spanish banks to fail stress test -El Pais - India government advisor Rangarajan: Monetary policy should operate with a bias towards tightening to tame inflation. July headline inflation unlikely to move above 11%; Sees it moving back below 10% by September - China PBoC signs bilateral three-year CNY30B currency swap agreement Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) (eighth bilateral deal since Dec 2008) - IFO's Sinn: Notes the largest rise in IFO since German unification. Capacity utilization only slightly below long-term average - IFO Abberger: IFO survey saw improvements from all sectors (including industry, construction and trade); Strong euro currency swings created some problems for firms, but export optimism similar to prior month - UK Chancellor Osborne: UK GDP data indicated that private sector contributed all but 0.1% of Q2 growth - China Gov agree to fine-tune policy to increase growth and to rely primarily on fiscal steps to support economic growth. China is particularly concerned over Europe's outlook
- Currencies: The Euro started the session on a soft note after Spanish press report stated that a few banks would fail the stress tests. The EUR/USD tested 1.2865 before stabilizing. However dealers suspected that the European data releases for the session would likely be in line with the recent trend of beating expectations and they were not disappointed. The EUR/USD surged over 50 pips after a stronger than expected German IFO data to test above 1.2930/. The GBP/USD pair soared towards 1.54 after the strong UK GDP showing. - The focus will focus on the release of the EU stress tests after the European close. Dealers feel that a 'truthful' scenario would should relieve some of the pressure on the euribors and the Euro currency should weaken. Sugar-coated results would aid risk appetite and benefit the euro. The 1.30 target appears back-in-play as the NY morning approaches. A break of that psychological level could bode for a test towards 1.32 area.
- Geopolitical: - The UK government published questions on the Alternative Voting (AV) referendum, which are part of the coalition agreement; the referendum to occur on 5th May. ***Following the release of UK economic data today, Chancellor Osborne indicated that the private sector contributed all but 0.1% of Q2 growth, and further stated that the GDP data shows that now is the time to deal with deficit. ***North Korea publically stated that joint US/South Korea military drills violates its sovereignty, and vowed physical response against the steps imposed by the United States.
- In The Papers: Telegraph, Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA) investigated a director who sold shares two days before it issued a major profits warming last month. - The Guardian, UK National Housing Federation warned that 750K people are at risk of losing their homes when the government changes housing benefits in April 2011 - UK Energy Minister Huhne was noted in the Financial Times as stating that Britain will 'very likely' face an energy crisis within the next ten years that could trigger economic volatility.
***Looking Ahead ***
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland May Trade Balance: â‚¬ â‚¬2.9B prior - 6:00 (EU) ECB's Tumpel-Gugerall speaks in London - 7:00 (RU) Russia Medvedev meets Italy's Berlusconi - 7:00 (CA) Canada Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.4% prior - 7:00 (CA) Canada Jun CPI Core M/M 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.8% prior - 7:45 (IC) Iceland to sell 3.8% 2021 I/L and 8.75% 2019 bonds - 9:00 (BE) Belgium Jul Business Confidence: -8.0e v -7.7 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: $110.0Me v $ prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Unemployment Rate: 5.1%e v 5.1% prior - 12:30 (EU) EU Regulator CEBS to release 'summary of the 91 bank-by-bank results, sorted by country' - 13:00 (EU) EU Regulator CEBS press conference and Q&A - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Trade Balance: $1.5Be v $1.9B prior - (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest rate Decision: Unanimous analyst expectations is for the Overnight Lending Rate to remain steady at 3.00%
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.