All Eyes on Stress Tests Today; European Economy Shaping Up
The strong economic data from Europe this week is helping to
renew confidence in a global economic recovery while the U.S. still
struggles with the possibility of a double-dip recession. Traders have been
punishing the Dollar late this week as the combination of dovish testimony from
Fed Chairman Bernanke and robust economic news from Europe means interest rates
will remain low in the U.S.
while the Euro Zone grows closer to an interest rate hike. Investors,
frustrated by the low returns offered by U.S. Treasury instruments are seeking
better returns in equities, commodities and commodity-linked currencies.
Without any major economic reports today, investors will
turn their focus early in the session to U.S. earnings reports then shift
their interest to the European stress tests sometime around noon Eastern Time.
Investors are still questioning what the European stress
tests will reveal. Some traders feel the tests may have been too soft to yield
any significant results. Others expect the tests to show weakness in some banks
especially in Spain and Greece.
Overall, the tests will show that European banks need to raise capital.
The EUR USD has formed a new main bottom at 1.2732. The main
trend is up and upside momentum indicates this market is poised to breakout
over the last swing top at 1.3028. A trade through this level will not only
reaffirm the uptrend, but will also take out a Fib retracement level at 1.2998.
Piercing this area will set up the Euro for more upside action as the next key
resistance price does not come in until 1.3342.
The strong rally in the GBP USD has put the Pound in a
position to take out the last main top at 1.5471. This move will reaffirm the
main uptrend but also put the market in a position to challenge the April tops
at 1.5497 to 1.5523.
Demand for higher risk is expected to underpin the
commodity-linked currencies today. The rally is being led by the Australian
Dollar, followed by the New
Zealand and Canadian Dollar. As long as
interest rates are expected to remain low in the U.S. and the central banks from
these three countries are raising rates, look for the Dollar to remain
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