Monday July 26, 2010 - 03:37:40 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 26-Jul-2010 - 0335 GMT
The US equities closed higher on Firday following the stronger earnings from Verizon, General Electric and American Express. The Dow (10424.62) was up 0.99% and Nasdaq (2269.47) was up 1.05%.
The Asians are trading mixed today. Nikkei (9546.01) is up 1.22% while Shanghai (2563.08) is down 0.35%. The Sensex (18130.98) and Nifty (5449.10) closed slightly higher on Friday and they might test their respective Resistance 18500 and 5500 in the coming days.
Crude (79.07) though has come off from Friday's high of 79.60, is continuing to retain its strength. The threat of the tropical strom "Bonnie" and the stronger equity markets is keeping up the commodity price higher. Significant Resistance is seen at 80 and a strong break above it might take it further up towards 83-85 in the coming days. Support is seen in 78.50-00 region. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1191.10) has come off from Friday's high of 1203.90. Failure to see a strong break above 1200 is keeping up the downside pressure. 1175 is a very crucial Support to watch for and a break below it might increase the chaces of further dip towards 1150-40. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.2930) has rallied slightly in early Asia today, but might get sold in Europe today, after the bank stress test results on Friday were perceived as being too benign. Dollar-Yen (87.65) has seen a slow rise from 86.27 all through last week and is likely to trade indecisively between 86.50-88.50 for the next several days. Euro-Yen (113.25) is trading near the upper end of a 110.75-113.75 range. Whether this range breaks or not will be the key theme for the Cross this week.
The Pound (1.5458) has risen well over the last couple of days and seems on its way to test 1.5559, the 200-day Moving Average. Dollar-Swiss (1.0530) found Support at 1.04 on Friday, and has rallied well from there, but has Resistance at 1.0580 today. The Aussie (0.8950) has surges through last week, coming up from a low near 0.8635, but may find Resistance near current levels, which are near the 200-day Moving Average at 0.8962.
In Asia, the Korean Won (1195.50) remains strong, with the USD-KRW continuing to trade below 1208. The USD-SGD (1.3654) has come down to the Apr-10 low of 1.3645. The Asian currencies have strengthened greaterly over the last couple of months, after having weakened in May. Future trend needs to be seen. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.93 on Friday. Crucial Support to be watched at 46.90-80 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.49%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 2 bps and 6 bps each to quote at 0.585 and 2.99% respectively.
...Actual 0.3%...Previous 1.0%
14:00 GMT June US New Home Sales
...Expected 317K...Previous 300K
June GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 105.5...Previous 102.5
June GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 106.8...Previous 101.1
June GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 106.2...Previous 101.8
UK GDP Q2 '10 (Pre)
...Actual 1.1%...Previous 0.3%
CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.7%...Previous 1.8%
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