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Monday July 26, 2010 - 09:38:09 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 26/07/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis July 26, 2010


Fundamental Analysis:CB Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in
economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer
spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher
readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts
predict a future reading of 51.00.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro fluctuated violently on Friday, breaking both the support &
resistance specified in the report, but only reaching the target in the case
of the support. After breaking 1.2860, the Euro reached the first suggested
target 1.2807 successfully. When looking at the hourly chart, we find that
Friday's dive has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will
be placed under our focus for today. The bottom of the channel is at 1.2807,
but after the strong bounce we seen late Friday, the price built another
support ahead of the channel bottom at 1.2883. In case we break today's
support (1.2883) we will drop to test the bottom of the channel at 1.2807 as
a first target. And if this one is also broke, then the rising channel is
broken, which would leave the Euro vulnerable to more downside activity,
targeting 1.2731 as a first & immediate target for this break on the way to
lower targets. On the other hand, the resistance is at the important 1.2942.
If broken, the price will resume its bounce from channel bottom, targeting
yet another test of 1.3026, and may be then 1.3075.

Support:
* 1.2883: the rising trend line from Friday's low on intraday charts.
* 1.2807: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 1.2731: yesterday's low.

Resistance:
* 1.2942: Asian session top, and the falling trend line from last weeks top
on the hourly chart.
* 1.3026: Tuesday's & 2-month high.
* 1.3075: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816 to 1.1875.

---

USD/JPY

As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show that the
possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from June 3rd top
89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the
inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the
completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective
waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the attached
chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion. Therefore, and even
though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not
neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term
support is at 87.33, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after a
3-wave correction, targeting 86.72 & 85.84. Resistance is at 87.67. A break
here indicates that the odds of c continuation of the correction of the 5
waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target 88.37, then 88.78.
It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25 even with a few
pips would strongly indicate the termination of the correction we are
currently living.

Support:
* 87.33: the rising trend line from Thursday's low on the hourly chart.
* 86.72: Friday's low.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.

Resistance:
* 87.67: important hourly resistance, stopped the price several times after
the open.
* 88.37: Jul 12th low.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
down).

---


Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

---

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
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