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Monday July 26, 2010 - 20:51:59 GMT
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Dow Turns Positive for Year; New Home Sales, FedEx Forecast Boost Stocks

News that U.S. New Homes Sales beat estimates and FedEx boosted its forecast helped drive the Dow Jones Average up this morning, helping to erase all of its 2010 loss. Of the three major indices, the Dow Jones looks to be the strongest.

Technically, the September E-mini Dow Jones futures contract turned the main trend up on the daily chart with a move through 10367. The chart indicates the market is in a position to test the .618 retracement level at 10516 and the June top at 10536 over the near-term. The September E-mini S&P 500 turned its trend up on the trade through 1099.25. This market is struggling at a 50% level at 1107.00. Holding above this level could launch an acceleration to the June top at 1129.50. Finally, the September E-mini NASDAQ is in an uptrend on the daily chart. Holding the 50% level at 1875.75 could help drive this market to the 61.8% retracement price at 1917.75.

Cycle watchers are looking for a top this week which could lead to a tremendous sell-off by the end of the week. The move may start today especially since it looks as if the intra-day rally has stalled. The best sign of a top formation will be a closing price reversal top by the end of today.

Those looking for a top in equities should watch the Treasury markets for clues. Today the September T-Notes and T-Bonds weakened when the better than expected housing data was released. A reversal down in equities is likely to trigger a short-covering in the Treasurys late in the session.

Despite questions about how the European bank stress tests were conducted, investors seemed satisfied enough with the results early this morning to underpin the Euro while waiting for fresh news regarding the U.S. housing market.

Following the release of U.S. new home sales data which saw an increase in June by more than economists had forecast, the Euro rallied and is now pressing a minor .618 retracement level at 1.2998. This puts this pair in a position to challenge last week’s high at 1.3028.

Stocks extended their gains following the housing report, driving up demand for higher risk assets, helping the Euro maintain the upward momentum which helped drive the market higher late last week.

The British Pound is higher this morning but momentum slowed when the market neared a weekly swing top at 1.5523. A breakout over this level will turn the main trend up and set up a possible acceleration to a major 50% retracement level at 1.5635.

Fundamentally the Sterling is being driven higher by last week’s release of better than expected second quarter GDP. Last week’s news that the U.K. economy expanded by a strong 1.1 percent was a sign the economy was more stable than previously estimated. This news led some investors to believe that the Bank of England will have to seriously consider raising its benchmark interest rate sooner than expected.

As the Pound approaches a key retracement level at 1.5635, investors have to realize that the second quarter expansion took place before the government implemented its proposed deep spending cuts and tax hikes. The biggest fear amongst bullish traders is that the government’s proposed austerity measures will curtail the gains that the economy is currently showing.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

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