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Monday July 26, 2010 - 22:01:34 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (26 July 2010)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3005 level and was supported around the $1.2875 level.  The common currency briefly traded above the US$ 1.3000 figure before settling back during the North American session.  Dealers continued to chase the pair higher following the release of Friday’s stress test results on 91 eurozone banks, the details of which were better than expected.   Data released in the U.S. today saw the June Chicago Fed national activity index decline to -0.63 from the revised prior reading of +0.31 while the July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index fell sharply.  Also, June new home sales evidenced a surprising 23.6% m/m increase to an annualized 330,000 units.  May CaseShilller home prices data will be released tomorrow along with July consumer confidence data and and the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index.  Philadelphia Fed President Plosser reported “there is underlying strength that is still there,” adding there is not much of a role for additional Fed action in the near term but conceded Fed policymakers “have ammunition to act if we want to.”  San Francisco Fed President Yellen, the presumed next Vice Chairman of the Fed, reported it would be “risky” to adopt a long-run inflation goal of 4% and said regulation and supervision are the “first line of defense” against financial risks.  In eurozone news, June M3 money supply data will be released tomorrow followed by the ECB’s bank lending survey on Wednesday.  European Central Bank President Trichet reported the stress test on the banks was a “very important transparency exercise” while ECB member Ordonez said the tests “for sure have been enough to restore investor confidence.”  Eurogroup chaiman Juncker said the stress tests evidence a “robust” European banking industry.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3265 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥86.80 level and was capped around the ¥87.70 level.  New political party “Your Party” called on the government to weaken the yen and undertake a more expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate the domestic economy and counter deflation.  Nomura, Japan’s largest brokerage, downgraded its assessment of Japanese equities to “neutral,” citing a bleaker profit outlook and decelerating economic growth prospects.  Nomura expects economic growth of 2.6% this fiscal year and 1.5% next fiscal year.  Data released in Japan today saw the June merchandise trade balance increase to ¥687 billion from the revised previous tally of ¥320.9 billion.  The June corporate services price index will be released overnight.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.77% to close at ¥9,503.66.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥112.20 level and was capped around the ¥113.45 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥135.55 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥82.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7790 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7799.  The June leading index will be released this week along with the July MNI business conditions survey and July PMI manufacturing.  People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian reported the “fixed” yuan exchange rate system caused excess liquidity that may cause “heightened inflation expectations and speculation in assets.”

£

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5515 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5405 level.  Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include CBI July reported sales data followed by July Nationwide house prices data on Thursday and other mortgage and consumer credit numbers.  Bank of England announced its new Financial Policy Committee will have eleven members and be in place by the autumn.  The key functions of the Financial Services Authority will be relegated to the BoE. CEBR reported BoE will not need to raised rates for eighteen months.  Chief Economist Dale has warned of lower economic growth, higher inflation, and rising unemployment.  There is talk of a possible three-way split on the MPC this year if one or more policymakers voted to expand policy accommodation.  Some believe the MPC may resort to increasing its asset purchase program. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8325 level and was capped around the £0.8380 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0490 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0555 level.  The June UBS consumption indicator will be released tomorrow followed by the July KOF Swiss leading indicator on Friday.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3565 level while the British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6345 level.

 

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