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Tuesday July 27, 2010 - 09:50:56 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 27/07/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis July 27, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders
The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of
orders for durable goods, excluding transportation. Because aircraft
are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers. A higher
expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
The analysts predict a future reading of 0.60%.
The Euro survived just above the support we presented in yesterday's
1.2883 with amazing accuracy (yesterday's low was 1.2886). Then it went
the way up to break yesterday's resistance 1.2942, and it is still
approaching the suggested target 1.3026 as we speak (the high until the
moment of preparing this report is 1.3016). Therefore, we await a test
the important resistance 1.3026, where there is the 2-month high. But,
will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we talked about
yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that Friday's
has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be placed
our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is at
Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3075 and May
top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend giving attention
all these areas, and we believe that each of them will play a role in
dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at 1.2872, we
drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days, targeting
1.2792, and 1.2691. On the other side, the resistance is at the
1.3026. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the channel
bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200.
* 1.2872: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 1.2792: Friday's low.
* 1.2691: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.2150.
* 1.3026: last Tuesday's & 2-month high.
* 1.3092: May 10th high.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show that
possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from June 3rd top
89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these signs: the
inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and the
completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective
waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the
chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion. Therefore, and even
though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not
neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term
support is at 86.81, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after
3-wave correction, targeting 85.84 & 84.81. Resistance is at 87.37. A
here indicates that the odds of c continuation of the correction of the 5
waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target 88.01, then
It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25 even with a few
pips would strongly indicate the termination of the correction we are
currently living, and will officially announce a new wave down!
* 86.81: obvious hourly support, which has been tested several times
the Asian session.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years!
* 87.37: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
* 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5
trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data,
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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09:30 GB- CPI
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00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
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13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
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