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Tuesday July 27, 2010 - 15:29:45 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Tuesday, July 27, 2010 11:21:19 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -27 S&P -4.8 NASDAQ -13.5

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Jun Central Govt Budget (BRL): 1.1B v -510M prior
- (BR) Brazil Jul FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Jul 24th:+0.6% w/w; 3.8% y/y
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e July 24th: +2.7% y/y; MTD: -0.7% v Jun
- (US) May S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y: 4.61% v 3.85%e; House Price Index: 146.43 v 144.59 prior
- (BR) Brazil Jun Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 1.53T v 1.50T prior; Private Banks Lending: 879B v 871B prior
- (US) Jul Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 16 v 11e
- (US) Jul Consumer Confidence: 50.4 v 51.0e
- (MX) Mexico May Global Economic Indicator: 8.9% v 8.0%e

- Better corporate earnings helped lift US equity indices before the open, although a miss in the July consumer confidence number has brought in some sellers in the late NY morning. Note that the July Richmond Fed regional manufacturing index was much better than expected, although the number declined from June levels. Consumer confidence is now where it stood in February, and barely above the key 50 handle. News on the housing market was mildly upbeat: the S&P/CS May home price index rose 1.3% from April. But the homebuyer's tax credit that expired April 30 had an impact on the reading, and the report warned that the recent gains in home prices are not likely to last. Gold prices are under substantial pressure approaching three month lows near $1160 as the August option contracts are set to expire. Other metals are also trading off and Sep crude prices are back below $78 for the first time in three sessions. US Treasury prices opened at or near session and overnight lows but have been paring back losses as equities have reversed lower. The 10-year yield remains above 3% while the 2-year is up a couple basis points to 0.62% ahead of this afternoon's auction results.

- Dow component Du Pont left consensus estimates in the dust in its Q2 report and raised its 2010 guidance considerably. On the conference call, Du Pont said global semiconductor consumption already exceeds pre-recession levels, noting that sales volumes and prices are up across the business. Shares of DD are up 4%. Energy majors BP and Valero both reported this morning. Shares of Valero were up nearly 3% in the premarket on the firm's better-than-expected earnings, although they are near unchanged in mid day trading. BP's quarterly results were predictably disastrous, and as expected the company replaced its embattled CEO Tony Hayward with BP insider Robert Dudley, who pledged to create a smaller, leaner, more focused company. BP's US-listed ADRs are down 3% or so.

- Steelmaker US Steel and AK Steel offered contrasting quarterly results. US Steel racked up a major $0.62 loss in its Q2 on FX trouble, mainly due to the big drop in the value of the euro in the quarter, although ex charges US Steel's Q2 earning would still have missed analysts' expectations. The company also said that next quarter's results are expected to be below Q2 largely due to a decrease in shipping and production volumes in the flat-rolled segment, reflecting slower order rates. AK Steel had a strong quarter, with both top- and bottom-line results beating expectations. After rising 3% in the premarket, shares of AKS are down 4% along with most other steel names. X is down more than 5%.

- A selection of major manufacturers have reported very strong quarterly results. Automobile component maker AmerisourceBergen and engine maker Cummins both beat top- and bottom-line expectations and also hiked 2010 guidance. In addition, ABC increased its share buyback. ABC is down 4% while CMI is up 3%. Like many other large
US corporations this earnings season, Cummins cited strength in emerging markets as driving the firm's strong results in the quarter. Agricultural equipment maker AGCO also beat expectations and boosted its 2010 view, citing strength in Latin America. Engineering firm Fluor Corp modestly exceeded expectations. AGCO is around even. Rail name Kansas City Southern beat out the consensus view, noting that automotive and intermodal traffic trends have been encouraging. KSU is down 5%.

- The greenback crawled back from multi-month lows against the euro as chatter that the SNB might be on top in the EUR/USD pair made the rounds. However, technical factors could push the dollar a bit higher. Dealers noted that EUR/USD failed a second time to close above the declining its 21 moving average, and a move to 1.27 sets up a possible outside week. Another dealer commented that the weekly candle charts may suggest an "evening star" pattern. The price action today mirrored the definition as reversals are often characterized by marginal new highs, and then failure. Dealers are now eyeing the 1.2900 area for additional downside momentum in the pair. Spot gold seemed to aid the dollar after the spot metal broke below its 21-month uptrend line at $1,174/oz.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (FR) France Jun Net Change Jobseekers: K v 10.0Ke; Total Jobseekers: M v 2.69Me v 2.70M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury's to sell $38B in 2-year notes
- 14:00 (US) Treasury Brainard
- 16:30 (US) EIA Weekly Energy Inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Jul 25th: -46e v -45 prior



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