The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2950
level and was capped around the $1.3045 level.The common currency continues to orbit the psychologically-important US$
1.3000 figure as traders weigh an improving eurozone sovereign outlook against
a deceleration in U.S. economic activity.Dealers reacted to last Friday‚Äôs eurozone bank stress tests results by
pushing the euro back above the US$ 1.3000 figure on the perception the
European banking system should be able to withstand additional dislocations in
the sovereign credit market.European
Central Bank officials talked up the stress tests late last week and yesterday,
suggesting the eurozone received more than a passing grade.Data released in the eurozone today saw the
June M3 money supply increase 0.2% y/y and the ECB‚Äôs bank lending survey will
be released tomorrow.German data saw
the August GfK consumer confidence survey climb significantly to 3.9 from the
prior reading of 3.6 and the June import price index was up 0.9% m/m and 9.1%
y/y.Provisional July CPI data will be
released tomorrow.French data saw total
June jobseekers off 8,600, an indication of an improving labour market
there.In U.S. news, dealers reacted negatively to a lower-than-expected July
consumer confidence print of 50.4, compared with the previous revised total of
54.3.These data suggest consumer
spending may be relatively weak as final private demand is limited by current
sentiment.Other data saw the July
Richmond Fed manufacturing index decline to +16 from the prior print of +23
while the May S&P/CaseShiller home price index was up 0.47% m/m and 4.61%
y/y.MBA mortgage applications, June
durable goods orders, and the Fed‚Äôs Beige Book will be released tomorrow.Philadelphia Fed President Plosser yesterday
suggested the current economic situation does not warrant additional Fed
stimulus but added the FOMC is prepared to move if and when needed.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•87.90
level and was supported around the ¬•86.80 level. Dealers pushed the yen lower today on
expectations Bank of Japan could ease monetary policy further.Demand for Japanese government bonds remains
strong and this is a signal that many investors expect Japanese yields could
fall further.There is still talk the government
may look to protect the psychologically-important ¬•85 handle by selling yen for
U.S. dollars or other currencies in what would be the country‚Äôs first official
yen-selling intervention in several years.Many BoJ-watchers believe the central bank will maintain its
ultra-accommodative monetary policy for at least two more years.Japanese banks have been investing in
longer-dated debt and the swaps market to record profits as yields on five-year
JGBs move lower.Data released in Japan
overnight saw the June corporate service price index decline 1.0% y/y, lower
than the previous -0.8% May result and the latest evidence that deflation
remains a major problem for the Japanese economy.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.07% to
close at ¬•9,496.85.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro
moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•114.10 level and was supported around the ¬•112.75 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ¬•136.65 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•82.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7784 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7790. Data released in China overnight saw the June
leading index decline to 102.84 from the revised prior tally of 103.25.People‚Äôs Bank of China reported China‚Äôs
economic fundamentals remain ‚Äúgood‚ÄĚ and said the recent deceleration in
economic growth will likely stabilize.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5575 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5440 level.Cable reached its strongest level since
February 2010 as traders reacted positively to a surprise +33 print in July CBI
reported sales, up from the prior reading of -5.Additionally, none of the ¬£355 million in
corporate bond securities Bank of England said it would purchase in its twice-weekly
program was tendered today, the first time investors did not seek a BoE bid
since March.This is indicative of
improving sentiment in the credit markets.A perceived relaxation of terms in the Basel 3 capital accord terms is
also supporting sterling.The key functions of the Financial Services
Authority will be relegated to the BoE. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270
level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8345 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8415
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0635 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0480 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the
June UBS consumption indicator improve to 1.810, up from the revised May result
of 1.712 and its highest level since July 2008. Swiss unemployment remains at
about half the level as the eurozone‚Äôs rate and this is resulting in positive
economic activity.There is some
speculation Swiss National Bank may have intervened by selling francs today
given the significant move lower for the currency but SNB would not confirm
this speculation.U.S. dollar offers are
cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3795 level
while the British pound moved higher
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6525 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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