Wednesday July 28, 2010 - 03:35:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 28-Jul-2010 - 0333 GMT
The US Equities were relatively quiet yesterday. The investors were mixed over upbeat earnings by companies and dissappointing consumer confidence data. The Dow (10537.69) was up 0.12% while the S&P 500 (1113.84) was down 0.10%. The Dow is just above the important level of 10526.78 (100 DMA) and we need to wait and watch whether it breaks this level strongly and moved up towards 10800 or testes this level and comes down towards 10350-00 in the coming days.
The Asian Equities are in the Green today. The Nikkei (9675.47) is up 1.88% on strong numbers by Canon and improved outlook for Japanese Exports. The Shanghai (2583.08) is up 0.30%. In india, the Sensex (18077.61) closed up 0.32% and the Nifty (5430.60) closed up 0.22% yesterday. We continue to hold our stance of a Resistance at 18500 on the Sensex and 5500 on the Nifty in the next few days.
Crude (77.08) has come off sharply from yesterday's high of 79.69 and is now trading lower near 77. The bad US Consumer Confidence data release yesterday pulled down the price. Technically, the significant Resistance at 80, which we have been mentioning for sometime is holding and a strong break below 76 might pull it further down towards 75-73 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1160.70) fell sharply yesterday breaking below the crucial Support at 1175 and is now trading lower near 1160. A further dip towards 1150-40 can be seen in the coming days.
Euro (1.2999) is continuing to oscillate around 1.30. Though the Resistance at 1.3030 is holding, the chances of a rise to 1.3100-25 cannot be ruled out while above the Support at 1.2970. Dollar-Yen (87.79) has risen sharply from yesterday's low of 86.82, but it has very significant immediate Resistance at 88.00, a break above which might see further rise towards 88.50. Euro-Yen Cross (114.13) has risen breaking above the Resistance at 113.50 and might see further rise to 115.00-50 today.
Dollar-Swiss tested the 200 DMA (1.0643) yesterday and is now trading lower. We may now see it move down towards 1.0500-450 today. Aussie has fallen sharply and may touch 0.8900-857 in the coming sessions today. Cable has moved up beyond the 200 DMA at 1.5551 and further rise towards 1.5600-50 is possible today.
The Asians have weakened slightly as compared to yesterday. The Korean-Won is trading near 1186 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3640. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower at 46.65/66 yesterday and it has a very important Support at 46.60 a break below which might see further downmove towards 46.40-20.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.48%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 4 bps each to quote at 0.63% and 3.03% respectively.
Yesterday, in India the RBI has increased the Repo rates by 25 bps to 5.75% and the Reverse Repo rate by 50 bps to 4.50% and left the CRR unchanged at 6.00%.
...Actual 0.6%...Previous 0.9%
12:30 GMT June US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 0.9%...Previous -0.6%
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 5.75%...Previous 5.50%
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 4.50%...Previous 4.00%
...Actual 6.00%...Previous 6.00%
US Case Schiller
...Actual 4.6%...Previous 3.8%
US Cons Conf
...Actual 50.4...Previous 54.3
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