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Wednesday July 28, 2010 - 09:39:00 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/07/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis July 28, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and
as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of
health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there
fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite
volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to
meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should
taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a
reading of 464.00K.
The Euro didn't even come close to the support specified in yesterday's
report 1.2872, finding a bottom at 1.2950, and refusing to drift away
the 1.30 level for more than half a cent, before trying to break 1.3026,
without being able to hold above it. Therefore, once again, we await a
of the important resistance 1.3026, where there is the 2-month high.
will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we talked about
yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that Friday's
has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be placed
our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is at
Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3075 and May
top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend giving attention
all these areas, and we believe that each of them will play a role in
dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at 1.2903, we
drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days, targeting
1.2792, and 1.2691. On the other side, the resistance is at the
1.3026. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the channel
bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200.
* 1.2903: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 1.2792: Friday's low.
* 1.2691: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.2150.
* 1.3026: Jul 20th top & 2-month high.
* 1.3092: May 10th high.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
The Dollar penetrated the resistance specified in yesterday's report
and came extremely close to the suggested target 88.01 (yesterday's high
87.96). As we have said several times in last week's reports, signs show
that the possibility of a rising correction to correct the fall from
3rd top 89.09 to July 16th low 86.25 is growing. On the top of these
the inverted hammer formation, which appeared on the daily chart, and
completed 5-wave move, and further more what looks to be the corrective
waves (a) & (b) forming in an ideal manner (please refer to the
chart), and wave (c) developing in an ideal fashion, and approaching one
its ideal targets (short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88.01).
and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we
should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today!
Short term support is at 87.25, and if broken, the price will resume its
drop after a 3-wave correction, targeting 86.46 & 85.84. Resistance
88.01. A break here indicates that the odds of a continuation of the
correction of the 5 waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will
target Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole drop from 92.87, with
first 2 of them at 88.78 & 89.56. It is worth mentioning that
5 bottom 86.25 even with a few pips would strongly indicate the
of the correction we are currently living, and will officially announce a
new wave down!
* 87.25: the rising trend line from Jul 22nd low on the hourly chart.
* 86.46: Jul 19th low.
* 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
* 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09.
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5
* 89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves
trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data,
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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