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Wednesday July 28, 2010 - 15:03:43 GMT
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Weaker Equities could Trigger Flight into U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar is picking up strength this morning as traders shed risky assets. Investors are lightening up positions because of the weaker durable goods data, but the actually selling pressure may have started last night following a disappointing Australian Consumer Price Index number. The Aussie CPI rose less than economists had expected, curtailing gains and leading to the possibility the Reserve Central Bank will refrain from hiking interest rates for the third consecutive month.

 

Overall, the weak durable goods report sets a bearish tone in the stock market ahead of the opening. This is likely to lead to a profit-taking break. Investors are taking a defensive position this morning. The shedding of risky assets is likely to benefit the Dollar and Treasury markets as traders seek safety in lower yielding assets.

 

The Euro is still struggling with the .618 retracement level at 1.2998 and the psychological 1.30 price. Although economic data in Europe has been improving while the U.S. economy weakens, upside momentum seems to be slowing indicating that sentiment may be shifting toward risk aversion at least in the short-run.

 

The British Pound is testing a major 50% price level at 1.5635 this morning. The main trend is up, but weakening demand for risk and technical factors may trigger a profit-taking reaction this morning. Despite an unexpected increase in the U.K. GDP during the second quarter, investors may become concerned that the application of spending cuts and higher taxes during the second half of the year may lead to a slow down in the economic recovery. These worries could lead investors to trim long positions, thereby pressuring the Sterling.

 

Downside momentum in the Japanese Yen has been slowing lately because of demand for higher risk assets and the renewal of the carry trade, but a sell-off in the equity markets may lead to the start of a another round of buying in the Japanese currency. Talk of a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan also contributed to the sell-off in the Yen.

 

Technically the Japanese Yen could be forming a daily reversal top which could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day break.

 

The theme developing today appears to favor the Dollar. The unexpectedly weak durable goods data is encouraging investors to trim risky positions. This could lead to a flight-to-safety rally in the Dollar.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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