stocks are trading weaker ahead of the opening. The market started to weaken on
Tuesday following a drop in consumer confidence. This report seemed to carry more
weight than a string of better earnings reports. Equity futures actually
reached their highs shortly before the opening and never really got on track,
forming a top even before the consumer confidence data was released.
Last nightâ€™s high in the September E-mini S&P 500 was at
1115.75 and occurred close to the German stock market opening leading me to
believe that Europe may behind this morningâ€™s weakness.
This morningâ€™s U.S. Durable Goods Report was disappointing.
The consensus was looking for an increase at 1.0%. The report actually showed a
loss of 1.0%. Stocks sold off following the news. This bearish report is likely
to set a negative tone for the day.
Later this afternoon the Fed releases the Beige Book, but
the bad news is already out in the form of durable goods. The bearishness of
this report makes Fridayâ€™s GDP Report all the more important. It is likely that
traders will lighten up positions ahead of Fridayâ€™s number, leading to the
possibility of a sharp sell-off into this number.
Technically, major cycle watchers are looking for a top this
week and the start of potential hard down move. The key number to watch is
1100.50 in the S&P 500 which was last weekâ€™s close. A break through this
number will turn the week lower and erase all of its prior gains. This will
most likely cast a negative pall on the market.
U.S. Treasury futures contracts have reversed a lower
opening and are now trading higher. The weak durable goods report has driven up
demand for safer government assets. Currently the September Treasury Bonds are
still in an uptrend despite the five day set-back. This trend will remain
intact as long as the swing bottom holds at 125â€™07.
The upside momentum in the Treasuries may be limited today
because of the increase in supply this week. On Tuesday the Treasuryâ€™s 2-Year
Note auction yielding a record low. Demand was down since investors had the
option of seeking higher yields in the stock market. If stocks should begin to
weaken significantly, then look for demand for government assets to increase
leading to a strong rally in T-Bonds and 10-Year Notes.
The U.S. Dollar is picking up strength this morning as
traders shed risky assets. Investors are lightening up positions because of the
weaker durable goods data, but the actually selling pressure may have started
last night following a disappointing Australian Consumer Price Index number.
The Aussie CPI rose less than economists had expected, curtailing gains and
leading to the possibility the Reserve Central Bank will refrain from hiking
interest rates for the third consecutive month.
Overall, the weak durable goods report sets a bearish tone
in the stock market ahead of the opening. This is likely to lead to a
profit-taking break. Investors are taking a defensive position this morning.
The shedding of risky assets is likely to benefit the Dollar and Treasury
markets as traders seek safety in lower yielding assets.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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