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Wednesday July 28, 2010 - 15:36:32 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, July 28, 2010 11:29:09 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -12 S&P -3.8 NASDAQ -11.5

***Economic Data***
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jul 23rd: -4.4% v 7.6% prior
- (GE) Germany Jul Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (GE) Germany Jul Preliminary
CPI EU harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (US) Jun Durable Goods Orders: -1.0% v 1.0e%; Durables Ex Transportation: -0.6% v 0.4%e
- (CL) Chile Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.9% v 4.2% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 1.4% v 0.5% prior
- (CL) Chile Jun Total Copper Production: 465.0K tons v 430.7K tons prior
- (US) Weekly DOE energy inventories: Crude +7.3M v -1.6Me; Gasoline: +90K v +500Ke; Distillate: +940K v +2Me; Utilization: 90.6% v 91.0%e

- Equities opened lower this morning and remain in the red mid morning as poor economic data puts the break on the brief earnings-driven rally seen over the last several sessions. The lower June durable goods data is coloring sentiment, as the final piece of major
US macro data ahead of Friday's advance Q2 GDP reading. Note that surprisingly large decline in civilian aircraft orders accounted for a good part of the decline, although nondefense orders ex aircraft rose by just 0.6%, indicating the absence of the usual uptick from the quarter's-end sales push. Slow growth jitters are reflected in front-month crude, which is near the bottom of the range the contract has been trading in over the last ten sessions, around $76.50. Oil prices were also pressured by a surprise build of more than 7M barrels in this week's DOE oil inventory data. August gold is hovering around yesterday's session lows, trading just shy of $1,160 just a little more than 10 bucks from the 200-day moving average. US Treasury prices are not too far from the unchanged mark on the session with the long end underperforming. The long bond yield has climbed back to 4.09% while the 10-year is just below 3.04%.

- Boeing missed revenue estimates in its Q2 report, although earnings were a bit ahead of the consensus. Boeing's CEO said he still expects a book to-bill-below one this year despite substantial order improvements. Shares of BA are down 1.5%. Railroads
Norfolk Southern and Canadian Pacific both beat expectations in the second quarter. Norfolk's CEO said he expects continued volume growth across most of the business, with the economic recovery choppy and uneven but clearly underway. This position was echoed by CP. NSC is down more than 3%, while CP is around even.

- Shares of supermajor energy name Conoco are up this morning after beating top- and bottom-line targets and announcing that it will sell its entire stake in Lukoil back to the company for approx $3.5B. Integrated oil name Hess missed analysts' revenue expectations by nearly $1B. The company noted that its losses from refining continue to decline. Upstream name Dominion also missed on the top line by a hair, although profits were ahead of expectations. COP and D are around even, while HES is in the red. Energy trader and supplier Constellation Group missed both EPS and revenue estimates. CEG is down nearly 3%. Note that energy traders have been anxiously watching news in the
Persian Gulf this morning, where there have been conflicting reports of an accident or maybe even an attack on a Japanese oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz.

- Sprint's quarterly losses keep getting smaller, and the company's widely watched net wireless adds turned positive in the quarter. Sprint expects to deliver positive total net wireless subscriber adds and fewer net postpaid subscriber losses in the second half of 2010. Shares of Sprint rose nearly 5% in the pre market, although they fell to around up one percent by mid morning. Speaking of the wireless industry, note that S&P put AT&T's A ratings on negative watch last night. Las Vegas Sands reported very strong profits, although revenue merely met expectations, thanks to strong margins expansion. CVS missed consensus estimates by a hair. Shares of LVS are up 3%. CVS's CFO warned that the weak economy has had a dampening impact on prescription utilization and consumer behavior across the retail pharmacy sector. CVS also won a major PBM contract from
Aetna, to cover benefits for 9.7M members for 12 years. CVS is up 3%.

- Insurance giants
Aetna and Aflac largely met expectations in Q2 reports. Aetna raised its 2010 outlook by a healthy margin, although the CEO was cautious about the second half of 2010, warning that results would reflect investments needed to prepare for health care reform and regulatory changes. Aflac tacked down its full-year outlook towards the lower end of its prior guidance range, and warned that sales next quarter would be lower y/y. Wellpoint beat earnings expectations and raised its 2010 guidance by a bit. AET, AFL and WLP are down 2-4% this morning.

- Among tech names,
Corning came in ahead of earnings expectations and significantly increased its projected 2011 capex spending over 2010 levels. Executives said LCD sales in the US would be soft this year, whereas China sales are strong and growing. Note that panel maker AU Optronics crushed profit estimates, thanks in part to higher prices. Telecommunications networking name Broadcom is up on firm earnings. Arrow Electronics crushed EPS targets and offered very strong earning guidance for next quarter. Arrow's CEO said he sees Exceptional sales growth in all regions served by the company.

- The greenback made yet another run toward 1.30 versus the euro during the
New York session as fears about the overall US economy - the softer durable goods release was a factor - trumped the direction of equity trading. GBP/USD continued to eke out fresh 5-month highs as it approached the 1.5640 area. The JPY benefited from the IMF remarks on its geographic relations and the trend of firmer Asian currencies. An IMF official again noted that the CNY was "substantially undervalued." USD/JPY is around 87.45. Earlier EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs were trading in the lower third portion of their respective session range, although EUR/JPY back below the 114 handle. The Swiss Franc reversed its earlier soft tone and was firmer against the USD and euro. Some of the European peripheral spread widened a touch during the mid-part of the session. The premium between the Spanish/German 10-year Gov't bonds inched back towards 140bps after probing below 130bps on Tuesday.

***Looking Ahead***
- (MX) Jun Remittances: $2.1Be v $2.1B prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $37B in 5-year Notes
- 14:00 (US) July Fed's Beige Book
- 14:30 (US) US Senate votes on Fed nominees
- 14:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Cenral Gov't Budget: $1.0Be v -$510M prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 37.4% prior
- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.00%



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