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Wednesday July 28, 2010 - 21:28:44 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 July 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2965 level and was capped around the $1.3040 level.  The big news in the market today was a weaker-than-expected result for U.S. June durable goods orders.  Defying expectations of a positive print, the headline number came in at -1.0%, down from the revised May tally of -0.8%, while the ex-transportation component fell to -0.6% from the May result of 1.2%.  Sub-components such as capital goods orders non-defense ex-air were also considerably weaker and these data suggest the U.S. economy sputtered lower at the end of the first half of the year.  Other data saw MBA mortgage applications off 4.4% from the prior +7.6% result.  Weekly initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data will be released tomrorow followed by GDP, PCE, and final July University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday.  The Federal Reserve released its July Beige Book today and its noted that economic growth decelerated in some areas over the past two months.  The expiration of a homebuyers’ tax credit and a decline in commercial real estate both had a negative impact on the U.S. economy.  The Fed continues to anticipate “continued moderate growth.”  New Fed nominees Yellen, Diamons, and Raskin won their Senate votes today and will soon join the Board of Governors.  In eurozone news, provisional German states’ July consumer price inflation data released today came in on the elevated side.  The preliminary national July CPI came in at 0.2% m/m and 1.1% y/y with the harmonized measure at +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y.  French June CPI data will be released tomorrow.  The European Central Bank introduced more stringent rules today on bank collateral including new haircuts on certain bonds.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3265 level. 




¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥87.25 level and was capped around the ¥88.10 level.  Bank of Japan Policy Board member Kamezaki reported the central bank “wants to make utmost efforts proactively to escape from deflation and return to a sustainable growth path under price stability,” noting a stronger yen will hurt exporters.  In contrast, other BoJ officials including Governor Shirakawa have been hesitant about commenting on the strong yen.  There is speculation that industrial production growth in Japan is decelerating and this may increase pressure on the BoJ to ease further.  Yen gains were also prompted by weaker-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation data, suggesting global growth continues to decelerate.  Reserve Bank of Australia will likely not hike rates next week and the yen could stay bid as a result of this evolving monetary and economic landscape.  While Kamezaki’s remarks may not increase the changes of yen-selling intervention by the government, traders remain fixated on the ¥85 level.  Economic growth in Japan may also slow in the fourth quarter.  The spread between three-month U.S. Dollar Libor and three-month yen Libor narrowed to 23.937 basis points today, the smallest difference since 20 May.  Data released in Japan overnight saw July small business confidence improve to 48.1 from the prior reading of 47.4.  June retail trade data will be released tonight.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.70% to close at ¥9,573.27.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥113.20 level and was capped around the ¥114.70 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥135.85 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥82.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7778 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7784.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland warned that the anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan will not lead to a “substantial” reduction in the U.S. trade deficit.  People’s Bank of China is expected to keep monetary policy relatively stable and continue to promote domestic final private demand. 


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5635 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5545 level.  Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include July Nationwide house prices, June net consumer credit, June net lending secured on dwellings, June mortgage approvals, and the July GfK consumer confidence survey.  Bank of England Governor King today expressed concerns that proposed reforms to the Basel capital accord will not be strong enough.  Monetary Policy Committee member Miles said now is not the proper time to change policy while MPC member Bean said sterling’s decline will likely have a larger-than-expected impact on consumer prices.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8310 level and was capped around the £0.8365 level.


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