Thursday July 29, 2010 - 03:45:59 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 29-Jul-2010 - 0340 GMT
The US Equities closed down on account of mixed earnings and drop in Durable goods orders yesterday. The Dow (10497.88) was down 0.38% and the S&P 500 (1106.13) was down 0.69%. The Dow has come below the important Resistance at 10527.04 (100 DMA) and we need to wait and watch whether it breaks this level strongly and moves up towards 10800 or testes this level and comes down towards 10350-00 in the coming days.
The Asians are mixed today. The Nikkei (9700.42) is down 0.54% on profit-taking, stronger Yen and weak US Equities while the Shanghai (2655.53) is up 0.83% on growth hope. In India, the Markets fell on account of Reliance Industries Limited, which fell 3% on rating downgrade. The Sensex (17957.37) closed down 0.67% and the Nifty (5397.55) closed down 0.61% yesterday.
Crude (76.98) is continuing to trade lower. The EIA's data release that showed an unexpected increase of 7.31 million barrels against the expected drop of 1.6 million barrels in US Crude inventories pulled down the price yesterday. The weak US manufacturing data release also supported the price fall. Though the Support at 76 is holding as of now, the current outlook remains bearish with significant Resistance at 78 and we might expect further downmove towards 74-73. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1163.70) is continuing to trade below 1175 and is retaining its downside pressure thereby keeping up the chances of seeing further downmove towards 1150-40 in the coming days. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.3001) is stuck in between 1.2950-3050 over the last couple of days and the market seems to be confused as in which direction should it take the currency further. Dollar-Yen (87.20) has come off from the Resistance at 88 and is keeping up the overall bearish sentiment intact. A strong break below 87 might pull it further down towards 86.50-00 in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (113.37) has come off sharply from yesterday's high of 114.74 following the fall in USD-JPY. A strong break below 113 might pull it further down to 112 today.
Dollar-Swiss may come down towards 1.0500 followed by a rally towards 1.0600-50 today. Aussie touched a low of 0.8904 and may now move up towards 0.9000-50 today. Cable may move in the range of 1.5550-650 in the coming sessions today before we see a break on the either side.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1184 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3654. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher yesterday at 46.76/77 and is still keeping alive the overall bullish sentiment. But little caution is needed and the market has to be watched carefully in the coming days.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.48%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 2 bps and 5 bps each to quote at 0.61% and 2.98% respectively.
09:00 GMT EU Biz Climate
...Actual 0.6%...Previous 0.9%
June US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual -1.0%...Previous -0.8%
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