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Thursday July 29, 2010 - 10:15:52 GMT
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European Market Update: USD softer on continued economic and fiscal concerns; European confidence rising (Trade the News)

Thursday, July 29, 2010 5:56:10 AM

 European Market Update: USD softer on continued economic and fiscal concerns; European confidence rising


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jul 23rd: $469.1B v $469.3B prior
- (UK) Jul Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 7.0%e
- (SA) South Africa Jun M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1%e
- (FR) France Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Producer Prices M/M: 1.4% v 3.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.7%e
- (SP) Spain May Total Housing Permits M/M: -6.6% v -14.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.4% v -15.3% prior
- (SP) Spain July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7%e
- (SW) Sweden July Consumer Confidence: 23.3v 22.1e; Economic Tendency Survey: 111.3 v 112.7e
- (SW) Sweden Q2 Manufacturing Confidence: 4 v 0 prior
- (SW) Sweden Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.0%e
- (DE) Denmark Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.1% prior
- (IT) Italy July Business Confidence: 98.3 v 96.4e
- (GE) Germany Jul Unemployment Change: -20K v -20Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.6%e
- ( IT) Italy Jun Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e
- (UK) Jun Net Consumer Credit: -£100M v £0.2Be; Net Lending : £700Mv £1.0Be
- (UK) Jun Mortgage Approvals: 47.6K v 48.8Ke
- (UK) Jun Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%
- (EU) Euro Zone July Business Climate Indicator: 0.66 v 0.39e; Consumer Confidence: -14 v -14e; Industrial Confidence: -4 v -5e; Economic Confidence: 101.3 v 99.1e; Services Confidence: 6 v 5e
- (PO) Portugal July Consumer Confidence: -42.0 v -40.1 prior; Economic Climate: 0.1 v 0.0 prior
- (BE) Belgium July CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5% prior
- (SA) South Africa Jun PPI M/M: 4.0% v 2.2%; Y/Y: 9.4% v 7.4%e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) Sells total €6.97B in 3-year and 10-year bonds v €7B indicated
- Sold €3.47B in 2.0% Jun 2013 BTPs; avg yield 2.01% v 2.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 1.4x
- Sold €3.5B in 4.0% Jun 2020 BTPs; avg yield 3.92% v 4.09% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.33x v 1.3x


- European economic confidence rose to the highest in more than two years in July and German unemployment declined for a 13th straight month.
- (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) raises rates as expected; Outlook for economic growth has softened somewhat but tightening still appropriate
- Singapore Central Bank (MAS): Economic growth likely peaked.
- Japan fund managers cut global equities weighting to 11 year low in July
- Sanofi board approves $70/share to try to acquire Genzyme (deal valued $17.8B)
- No surprises from Fed's beige book. US bond yield lower as a result


- As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +0.4% at 2,777 ; DAX Index +0.5% at 6,209; CAC-40 Index +0.4% at 3,683 and FTSE 100 Index +0.6% at 5,353

Major European pharma names reported today such as Sanofi, Merck, Astrazeneca and Bayer. Sanofi beat estimates in both net earnings and revenues and reiterated its EPS guidance for FY10 which is impacted by the approval of a rival treatment to Lovenox. Shares opened flat from yesterday's close and are trading down. Merck's shares opened up by 2.3% as company raised outlook for both operating profit and Revenues following acquisition of Millipore. Net disappointed estimates while revenues were better than expected. AstraZeneca is trading higher by 142.5 points following strong second quarter results and a raised outlook for the Core EPS. In
US session yesterday it was announced that the FDA backed Brilinta for certain heart patients. Bayer is also trading higher by approximately 0.6 points as company beat estimates for revenues and reaffirmed its targets
- Siemens shares opened 1.3% following strong results and improved outlook. As anticipated by the industry analysts, the company beat its own Q3 guidance in all segments, reporting improved revenues and metrics. Volkswagen beat estimates in net, profit and revenues and expected profit to be significantly higher than 2009 levels, marking a stronger language in the outlook. Shares are trading up by 1.55 points.
Santander disappointed on net income and reported worsening metrics on a year-over-year basis.
- Royal Dutch Shell reported today as well beating analysts estimates and marking a significant improvement in revenues by 42% year over year. Shares are trading higher by 4 points.

- Speakers:
- Moody's:
US government needs to articulate credible fiscal consolidation plan. The rating agency believes that Currently US had no plan to deal with rising debt
- France Fin Min Lagarde commented that she did not see any prospects for a 'double-dip' recession.
- India's Security Chief says not considering banning BlackBerry services [RIMM] as previously reported in India press
- China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (
SAFE): Found some unusual fast growth in some banks FX loans; To increase both scope and pace of investigations
- German Econ Min Bruederle: Good chance that unemployment will decline to below 3M by year-end
Japan PM Kan: No change in DPJ leadership posiiton until Sept

- Currencies:
- The USD continued to maintain a soft tone following the Wed release of the Beige Book and was at its worst levels ahead of the NY morning. Several factors weighed upon the dollar sentiment in the session. Dealers noted that California Governor Schwarzenegger declared a state of fiscal emergency. .Moody's provided the impetus for fresh lows for the dollar after it again stressed that the
US government needed to articulate a credible fiscal consolidation plan. Moody's believed that Currently US had no plan to deal with rising debt levels. Lastly month end rebalancing not helping the greenback. The EUR/USD tested above the 1.3075 level to hit its highest point since may 10th. GBP/USD continued to hit fresh 5-month highs over the 1.5650 area. USD/CHF was back below the 1.05 handle. Better European data also helping the Euro's cause. European economic confidence rose to the highest in more than two years in July and German unemployment declined for a 13th straight month.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- Telegraph's Pritchard, citing S&P notes, mentioned that European banks have approximately €30 trillion in liabilities and face notable funding concerns over the next two years due to governments exiting emergency support measures. Unlike their
US and Asian counterparts, most mortgages and other loans remain on balance sheets and thus require funding. The €750B EU aid package had only allowed achieving additional time, and did not address the more underlying fiscal issues.
- As the
Greece continues to deal with the issues of austerity, the government there used an emergency order to end a three day strike by the drivers' union; a national provision is typically used in states of war and natural disasters. The strikes are due to the unions' opposition to austerity measures allowing that industry for more competition. The strikes are affecting supplies to petrol stations and various shops throughout the country.
- *The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) have begun to ask some of its members to consider what to do if a member country has to leave the Euro zone. The meeting looks at various scenarios and the more technical and practical implications they may have including legal and documentation issues. Note that the plan it is in its initial stages, and members are still yet to be decided.

***Looking Ahead ***
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.1%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.2% prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v -7.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 460Ke v 464K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.50Me v 4.487M prior
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -11.3Be v -14.8B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 3.9Be v 1.4B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 41.4%e v 41.4% prior
- 9:30 (US) Weekly Commercial paper outstanding
- 10:30 (EIA Nat Gas Inventories
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-year notes
- 13:20 (US) Fed Fisher speaks on US economy
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 16.3% prior



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