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Thursday July 29, 2010 - 10:43:15 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/07/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis
July 29, 2010
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest
measure of economic
activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health.
(quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth
rate of the
economy as a whole. Consumption is by far the largest component
in the GDP
of the US and has the most affect on it. The figures can be quite
from quarter to quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD. The analysts predict a
future reading of 2.50%.
the second day in a raw, the Euro didn't even come close to the
specified in yesterday's report 1.2903, finding a bottom at 1.2967,
refusing to drift away from the 1.30 level for more than a third of a
before trying to break 1.3026, only to stop 2 pips above it. Therefore,
await a test of the set of important resistance levels in the
1.3026, 1.3044, and 1.3035, the last of which is our favorite,
since it is
presented by the trend line drawn from Tuesday's high on hourly
we will not lose interest in our newly found rising channel we
yesterday, and when we look at the hourly chart, we find that
has stopped at the bottom of a new rising channel which will be
our focus for today, knowing that the bottom of the channel is
1.2980. Moreover, we find the area between Fibonacci 61.8% at
1.3075 and May
10th top 1.3092 to be very interesting. Thus, we recommend
to all these areas, and we believe that each of them will
play a role in
dictating today's direction! In case we break the support at
1.2980, we will
drop with the Euro for today and probably the next few days,
1.2888, and 1.2737. On the other side, the resistance is at the
1.3035. If broken, the Euro will continue its bounce from the
bottom, targeting 1.3092 & 1.3200.
1.2980: the rising trend line from Tuesday's low on the hourly chart.
1.2888: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rising move from Jul 21st bottom to
* 1.2737: a well known support resistance area, which includes a
daily extremes, such as May 12th high, and Jul 22nd
* 1.3035: the falling trend line from Jul 20th
top & 2-month high on the
* 1.3092: May 10th high.
1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
Dollar/Yen reached the first of the "ideal" targets for this
correction: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88.01, and then
sharply, dropping for more than 100 pips, which could be read as
"exhaustion" in upside activity. Therefore, and even though we are
about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these
force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at the
important 86.81, and if broken, the price will resume its drop
3-wave correction, targeting 85.84 & 84.81. Resistance is at
88.01. A break
here indicates that the odds of a continuation of the
correction of the 5
waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target
retracement levels for the whole drop from 92.87, with the first 2
at 88.78 & 89.56. It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5
even with a few pips would strongly indicate the termination of
correction we are currently living, and will officially announce a new
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, the
bottom of the corrective channel, and an
obvious hourly support. The most
important short & medium term support
without a shadow of a doubt.
85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last
* 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop
* 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the
* 89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87
(the 5 waves
---Forex trading analysis written
by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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