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Thursday July 29, 2010 - 14:45:24 GMT
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U.S. Economic Concerns Help Boost Euro

The Euro rose against the Dollar overnight buoyed by concerns that the weakening U.S. economy may be slowing the recovery. Based on recent data and testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke, investors are bracing for a weak Second Quarter GDP report on Friday. This is driving investors into the Euro as the Euro Zone economy seems to be improving faster than the U.S. economy leading to speculation the European Central Bank may hike interest rates before the Fed although both seem to be months away from taking such action.

 

Technically, after several days of beating on the psychological 1.30 price level, the Euro finally broke through taking out stops and attracting fresh breakout buyers on the move. The key to sustaining the current uptrend will be the Euros ability to hold 1.30 as support. A failure to do so will signal the end of the up move.

 

The British Pound is trading higher but barely holding on to earlier gains following a test of a major 50% level at 1.5635. Slowing the Sterling’s upside momentum today is a U.K. housing price report which showed that home values fell in July for the first time in five months. Tighter lending conditions and concerns that government spending cuts will slow economic growth were to blame for the drop.

 

Last week it was reported that the U.K. economy grew more than expected during the Second Quarter but that was before the implementation of new government austerity measures. Concerns that new taxes and spending cuts will hurt the economy could be the factors which contribute to the start of a short-term decline. Technically, investors should begin to watch for a technical closing price reversal top to signal the end of the current rally.

 

The New Zealand Dollar is trading weaker versus the U.S. Dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%. Although this hike was expected, the main reason behind the weakness is the comment from RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard. The central bank Governor stated after the report that the “pace and extent” of future increases would be more moderate than earlier projected. Investors read this a sign that the central bank will refrain from an additional rate hike at its next meeting on September 15.

 

Technically the Kiwi reached its closing price reversal top objective at .7211. A normal reaction to this pattern is a 2 to 3 day decline of 50% of the last swing up. Further weakness will be indicated if .7211 fails to hold as support.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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