The Euro rose against the Dollar overnight buoyed by
concerns that the weakening U.S.
economy may be slowing the recovery. Based on recent data and testimony from
Fed Chairman Bernanke, investors are bracing for a weak Second Quarter GDP
report on Friday. This is driving investors into the Euro as the Euro Zone
economy seems to be improving faster than the U.S. economy leading to
speculation the European Central Bank may hike interest rates before the Fed
although both seem to be months away from taking such action.
Technically, after several days of beating on the
psychological 1.30 price level, the Euro finally broke through taking out stops
and attracting fresh breakout buyers on the move. The key to sustaining the
current uptrend will be the Euros ability to hold 1.30 as support. A failure to
do so will signal the end of the up move.
The British Pound is trading higher but barely holding on to
earlier gains following a test of a major 50% level at 1.5635. Slowing the
Sterlingâ€™s upside momentum today is a U.K. housing price report which showed
that home values fell in July for the first time in five months. Tighter
lending conditions and concerns that government spending cuts will slow
economic growth were to blame for the drop.
Last week it was reported that the U.K. economy
grew more than expected during the Second Quarter but that was before the
implementation of new government austerity measures. Concerns that new taxes
and spending cuts will hurt the economy could be the factors which contribute
to the start of a short-term decline. Technically, investors should begin to
watch for a technical closing price reversal top to signal the end of the
The New Zealand Dollar is trading weaker versus the U.S.
Dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its key lending
rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%. Although this hike was expected, the main
reason behind the weakness is the comment from RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard. The
central bank Governor stated after the report that the â€śpace and extentâ€ť of
future increases would be more moderate than earlier projected. Investors read
this a sign that the central bank will refrain from an additional rate hike at
its next meeting on September 15.
Technically the Kiwi reached its closing price reversal top
objective at .7211. A normal reaction to this pattern is a 2 to 3 day decline
of 50% of the last swing up. Further weakness will be indicated if .7211 fails
to hold as support.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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