Investors worried about the weakening U.S. economy and
a positive response to European earnings reports are pressuring the Dollar this
morning leading to a strong recovery in the equity markets after a sell-off on
Wednesday threatened the structure of the current rally. U.S. equity
markets broke sharply late in the trading session following a bearish durable
goods report yesterday morning and a not-so-bright outlook for the economy according
to the Fedâ€™s Beige Book late in the session.
Prior to the durable goods report economists were looking
for an increase of 1.0%, the actual report showed a drop of 1.0%.This news combined with an overbought
situation triggered a break early in the session which took out yesterdayâ€™s low
but held last weekâ€™s close. Following a delayed reaction to the Beige Book
numbers, longs threw in the towel and stock indices broke. The sell-off in the
September E-mini S&P 500 and September E-mini NASDAQ erased all of this
weekâ€™s gains before settling slightly above Wednesdayâ€™s low.
Overnight stock index futures regained close to 50% of the
correction from the top leading to this morningâ€™s higher markets and a possible
follow-through to the upside following the opening.
Technically it looked as if breaking last weekâ€™s low would
trigger an acceleration to the downside but this appears not to be the case as
investors shrugged off the move and gobbled up stocks on the decline. This move
showed that despite diminishing upside momentum and overbought conditions,
investors are still value driven.
The bearish durable goods report could be called a momentum
buster as investors have gotten a little too comfortable with the pace of the
current rally. This market is resilient however which means it is going to take
more than a weak durable goods report to break it from current levels.
Today traders will have the chance to react to an earnings
report from Exxon and this weekâ€™s initial claims report. Before the opening,
Exxon is expected to report second-quarter earnings of $1.46 per share and
revenue of $96.86 billion.
Todayâ€™s initial jobless claims report is expected to show
that claims fell for the third time in four weeks last week. If the report
comes out as expected, equities may feel some heat if investors decide that
this report is a strong indication of an improving jobs picture.
The weak U.S.
economic data coupled with the sell-off in equities helped trigger reversal
bottoms in both the September Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes on Wednesday despite
another government auction which increased available supply. Yesterdayâ€™s
technical pattern suggests the start of a 2 to 3 day rally.
The Treasurys are trading mixed this morning with T-Bonds
down and T-Notes trading slightly better. Demand for equities could trigger a
break, but the most important item to watch will be the initial claims report.
A better than expected report will pressure the Treasurys while a worse than
expected report is likely to trigger a flight-to-safety rally into T-Bonds and
Forex Trading News
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
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