The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3105
level and was supported around the $1.2975 level. The common currency traded
above the $1.3100 figure today for the first time since 4 May 2010 as improving
risk appetite continued to support higher-yielding currencies.Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly
initial jobless claims decline to 457,000 from a revised 468,000 print last
week while continuing jobless claims moved higher to 4.565 million from the
revised prior tally of 4.484 million. These data support the premise that the
U.S. labour market remains unsettled.July non-farm payrolls data will be closely scrutinized next week.Data to be released in the U.S. tomorrow
include Q2 GDP growth, PCE numbers, July Chicago PMI, and final July University
of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released tomorrow.Dallas Fed President Fisher reported the U.S.
economy faces a ‚Äúslow slog‚ÄĚ and suggested ‚Äúno amount of further monetary
accommodation is going to do the trick.‚ÄĚFisher predicted economic growth will be below 3% for a ‚Äúprolonged
period‚ÄĚ and said businesses are ‚Äúdispirited‚ÄĚ by tax and regulatory
changes.St. Louis Fed President Bullard
said the Fed should resume purchases of Treasuries if the economy slows and the
risk of deflation increases.In eurozone news, the eurozone July
business climate indicator rallied to +0.66 from +0.40 with industrial
confidence better at -4, consumer confidence steady at -14, economic confidence
higher at 101.3, and services confidence better at +6.EMU-16 unemployment and CPI data will be
released tomorrow.German July
unemployment fell 20,000 to 7.6% and French June producer prices data came in
at +0.0% m/m and +3.5% y/y.Euro offers
are cited around the US$ 1.3265 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•86.55
level and was capped around the ¬•87.50 level. The pair continues to find it difficult to
gain enough traction to challenge the ¬•90 figure as global economic growth
decelerates.Bank of Japan Policy Board
member Kamezaki yesterday reported the central bank ‚Äúwants to make utmost
efforts proactively to escape from deflation and return to a sustainable growth
path under price stability,‚ÄĚ noting a stronger yen will hurt exporters.In contrast, other BoJ officials including
Governor Shirakawa have been hesitant about commenting on the strong yen.There is speculation that industrial
production growth in Japan is decelerating and this may increase pressure on
the BoJ to ease further.Yen gains were
also prompted by weaker-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation data
released yesterday, suggesting global growth continues to decelerate.Reserve Bank of Australia will likely not
hike rates next week and the yen could stay bid as a result of this evolving
monetary and economic landscape.While
Kamezaki‚Äôs remarks may not increase the changes of yen-selling intervention by
the government, traders remain fixated on the ¬•85 level.Economic growth in Japan may also slow in the
fourth quarter.Data released in Japan
overnight saw June retail trade up 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y.Data to be released tonight include CPI and
PMI data.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost
0.58% to close at ¬•9,696.02.U.S. dollar
bids are cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•113.15 level and was capped around the ¬•114.20 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•134.95 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7761 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7778. The July MNI business conditions survey will
be released tonight.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5660 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5580 level.Data released in the U.K. today saw July
Nationwide house prices off 0.5% m/m and up 6.6% y/y while June net consumer
credit was off -¬£100 million.June net
lending secured on dwellings came in at ‚ā¨700 million and June mortgage
approvals slowed to +47,600.The Jun3 M4
money supply was up 0.0% m/m and 3.0% y/y and the July GfK consumer confidence
survey will be released tonight.Bank of
England Governor King reported the U.K. economic outlook remains uncertain and warned
there will likely be inflation next year.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270 level.The
euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers
around the ¬£0.8395 level and was supported around the ¬£0.8320 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0375 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0580 level. The July KOF Swiss leading indicator will be
released tomorrow. The June UBS consumption indicator was released yesterday
and improved to 1.81.There was market
chatter today that Swiss National Bank has been selling some of the euro it
purchased in its massive franc-selling interventions this year.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3580 level while the British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6185 level.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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