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Friday July 30, 2010 - 22:07:59 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 July 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2980 level and was capped around the $1.3090 level.  The common currency gave back some of yesterday’s intraday gains but the common currency has now traded with seven consecutive weekly higher highs.  The pair stopped just short this week of testing a key technical resistance level around the $1.3120 level.  Above that level, technicians cite the $1.3265 level as another key technical area.  The common currency’s gains have come as some concerns about eurozone sovereign credit have diminished.  Yields on eurozone sovereign bonds moved higher today, however, as traders booked profits at month’s end led by Portuguese two-year notes that were around 20bps higher.  Many dealers expect eurozone credit default swaps to remain under pressure and an increasing number of traders believe the eurozone will remain intact, instead opting for fiscal reform.  Social unrest remains elevated in Greece and there is a general perception the European Central Bank remains unwilling to monetize much more debt in the covered bond market, two factors that could weigh heavily on the euro.  Data released in the eurozone today saw the June unemployment rate print at 10.0% while the July flash EMU-16 consumer price estimate came in at 1.7% y/y, up from the prior reading of +1.4% y/y.  German data saw June retail sales off 0.9% m/m and up 3.1% y/y while June producer prices were up 0.0% m/m and 3.5% y/y.  In U.S. news, Q2 gross domestic product printed growth printed at an annualized 2.4%, down from the prior reading of 3.7% as personal consumption fell to +1.6%.  The Q2 GDP price index rose to +1.8% and the Q2 core PCE index slowed to +1.1% q/q from +1.2% q/q.  Additionally, the Q2 employment cost index ticked lower to +0.5% and the July Chicago PMI survey jumped to 62.3.  Finally, the final July University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator rallied to 67.8 from the prior reading of 66.5.  July ISM data will be released on Monday.  Much attention is still focused on the Federal Reserve and whether it will be forced to adopt new credit easing initiatives.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3265 level. 


¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥85.95 level and was capped around the ¥86.95 level.  Today’s intraday low represented the pair’s lowest level this year and its lowest level since testing the ¥84.85 level on 27 November 2009.  Decelerating U.S. and global economic growth has cast an overhang over higher-yielding currencies and resulted in traders increasing long yen positions in their portfolios.  Many data were released in Japan overnight.  First, the July manufacturing PMI slowed to 52.8 from the prior reading of 53.9.  Second, the June jobless rate ticked higher to 5.3% from the prior reading of 5.2.  Third, June overall household spending was up a surprising +0.5% y/y from the prior tally of -0.7% y/y.  These data are important because weak final private demand in Japan is creating deflationary pressures.  Fourth, the Tokyo-area July consumer price index worsened to -1.2% y/y with the ex-fresh food and energy component off 1.4% y/y, the latest evidence of stable or worsening deflationary pressures in the nation’s capital.  The June national consumer price index measure was off 0.7% y/y at the headline level and off 1.5% y/y at the ex-food and energy level.  Fifth, June industrial production came in weaker-than-expected at -1.5% m/m and +17.0% y/y.  Sixth, June housing starts were up 0.6% y/y to an annualized 750,000 units.  Seventh, June construction orders were off 10.2% y/y.  Collectively, these data evidence a Japanese economy that found it difficult to gain traction at the end of the first half of the year.  Members of Japan’s legislature today renewed calls for the Bank of Japan to adopt a formal inflation-targeting regime.  Prime Minister Kan today said next year’s budget will focus on “employment and economic growth.”  He also pledged to “work resolutely on debt reduction.”  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.64% to close at ¥9,537.30.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥112.00 figure and was capped around the ¥113.80 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥134.30 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥82.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7745 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7761.  July PMI manufacturing data are expected to be released early Monday.  China has officially overtaken Japan as the world’s second largest economy.


The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5720 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5550 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw the July GfK consumer confidence survey weaken to -22 from the prior reading of -19.  Data released in the U.K. this week saw July Nationwide house prices off 0.5% m/m and up 6.6% y/y while June net consumer credit was off -£100 million.  June net lending secured on dwellings came in at €700 million and June mortgage approvals slowed to +47,600.  Bank of England Governor King reported the U.K. economic outlook remains uncertain and warned there will likely be inflation next year.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8325 level and was vapped around the £0.8380 level.



The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0360 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0445 level. The pair reached its lowest level this week since January as traders are less concerned about Swiss National Bank franc-selling intervention.  Data released today saw the July KOF Swiss leading indicator remain unchanged at 2.23.  The June UBS consumption indicator was released this week and improved to 1.81.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3510 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6180 level.



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