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Monday August 2, 2010 - 10:27:23 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 02/08/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis August 02, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision on short term interest
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth
and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve
stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best
"risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases
for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a
than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD. The analysts predict
future reading of 4.50%.
The Euro broke support specified in yesterday's report 1.3028, and came
close to hitting the suggested target of 1.2962, but it stopped a few
before it, then it bounced clearly. It is clear that the Euro is facing
difficulties ahead of and around 1.31: there is the well known
1.3092, Friday's top 1.3105, and now we can also see that after the
the price has bumped into 1.3086 a couple of times during the Asian
If the price can go back to trade above 1.3086, reaching 1.32 (and
will be only a matter of time! The targets in this case will be 1.3200
bottom we still remember 1.3266. On the other hand, short term 61.8%
Fibonacci level has became the most important support for today,
that it is just above the rising trend line from June 29th low on the
chart. In case we break this support which is at 1.3020, the price will
& correct the whole move up from Tuesday's low 1.2731 to yesterday's
which will ideally target the area between 1.2950 & 1.2874. It is
mentioning that the latter is the most important support for the time
* 1.3020: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.2950: Jun 27th low.
* 1.2874: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from Jul 21st low to
* 1.3086: Asian session high, tested twice.
* 1.3200: Apr 23rd low.
* 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom.
Finally, we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, which indicates that
correction we have been monitoring for the past days is finally over,
makes it official: we are in a new down wave! But the bounce from
low 85.93, which is closing on the important resistance 86.81 this
warns of a correction to what we have seen of the new wave so far (the
from 88.10 to 85.93). Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or
without, dropping far below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned
a most probable scenario. The resistance which will determine if this
from Friday's low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar
keep shooting higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the
"ceiling" for the price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the
support 86.25 instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday's
we find 85.60 & 84.81 to be the most attractive of which.
* 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday's low.
* 85.60: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
* 88.10: Jul 28th top.
trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data,
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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