Tuesday August 3, 2010 - 03:53:57 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 03-Aug-2010 - 0351 GMT
The US Equities rallied yesterday on account of an increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending coupled with better than expected profits posted by the European banks. The Dow (10674.38) was up 1.99% and the S&P 500 (1125.86) was up 2.20%. The Dow has moved above the important level of 10500 and may move up towards 10850-900 while above 10500 in the coming days.
The Asian Equities are mixed after the strong performance by Wall Street. The Nikkei (9687.47) is up 1.22% while the Shanghai (2663.26) is down 0.35%. The Shanghai is just below the 20-Week MA at 2700, and may not be able to break it easily in the coming days. In india, the Sensex (18081.21) and the Nifty (5431.65) were up 1.19% yesterday. The markets were up on account of strong auto sales coupled with a pick-up in the manufacturing expansion and firm global sentiments. We continue to hold our stance of a Resistance at 18500 on the Sensex and 5500 on the Nifty in the next few days.
Crude (81.39) has risen sharply breaking above the Resistance at 80 and is now trading strong above 81. The stronger equity markets and weaker dollar supported the price rise yesterday. While above 80 there are good chances of further rise towards 83 in the coming days.
Gold (1183.70) is continuing to trade below 1200. Lack of upside momentum is retaining the downside pressure. 1175, 1150-40 are the significant Support levels to watch for. To see the Gold chart click the following link:
Dollar is continuing to trade weak all over. However, the dollar is currently near its very crucial Support level. The Dollar index (80.90) is near its 200-DMA (currently at 80.71) Support. Will the dollar regain its strength? We will have to wait and watch.
The Euro (1.3165) has risen breaking above its important Resistance in 1.3100-25 region and is trading higher now. Further rise towards 1.3250 is looking likely. Dollar-Yen.(86.41), with lack of upside momentum, is retaining its downside pressure. A break below 86.00-85.90 Support region might pull it further down towards 85.00-84.80 in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (113.68) is trading above the Resistance at 113.50 and while above 113.50, there are good chances of seeing a further rise towards 114.50-115 today.
Dollar-Swiss touched a low of 1.0348 and has recovered. We may need to wait and watch if the pair strongly breaks below 1.0350 or above 1.0400 today. Aussie has honoured the Resistance near 0.9150 and may fall towards 0.9000-8950 in the coming sessions today. Cable has moved up strongly and may see some consolidation between 1.5850-900 before a move towards 1.60 figure over today and tomorrow.
The Asian currencies are retaining their strength. The Korean-Won is trading near 1172 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3516. The previous low of 1.3447 (Jul-08) is a very significant level to watch for on the downside for USD-SGD. Dollar-Rupee has opened lower at 46.10/11 today and might the psychological Support at 46.00 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.44%. The 2Y yield was flat at 0.55% and the 10Y yield was up 2 bps to quote at 2.94%.
The RBA's interest rate decision is due today and is expected to leave the interest rates unchanged at 4.50%
04:30 GMT AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Expected 4.50%...Previous 4.50%
12:30 GMT US June Personal Income
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.4%
12:30 GMT US June PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
July US Manufacturing ISM
...Actual 55.5...Previous 56.2
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."