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Tuesday August 3, 2010 - 09:31:53 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 03,
Analysis: Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of
the percentage of the total labor
force that is unemployed but actively
seeking employment and willing to work
A high percentage
indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage
is a positive
indicator for the labor market in New-Zealand and should be
taken as positive
for the NZD. The analysts predict a future reading
The Euro broke
resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3086, and came
very close to
hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped only 6
pips before it,
then it spent the night in a tight range between 1.3183 &
this, the Euro jumped strongly, but this jump has not reached
its target yet.
Naturally, we expect more of the same today, and soaring
above 1.32. But,
before we get overexcited, we must wait for a break of the
falling trend line
from yesterday's top on intraday chart, which is running
currently at 1.3174.
If we do break this line, the Euro will start rising
again, and we will
target 1.3266 first, and may be at a later time 1.3325.
On the other hand,
short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3112 will be our
support of the day. If
broken, a correction will be initiated, and the price
will start giving up
yesterday's gains. This will target a test of a very
noteworthy trend line at
1.3040. If this is also broken, the positive
technical outlook will change
dramatically, and we will target 1.2952.
Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.3040: the rising trend
line from Jun 29th low, and also Jul 28th high.
* 1.2952: a well known
previous support resistance, which includes several
daily highs and lows,
among those Jul 27th high, and Jul 15th low.
1.3174: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom.
* 1.3325: Apr 7th
No change! Nothing of any
technical importance took place yesterday,
therefore, we still hold the same
technical outlook we did yesterday. After
we have clearly surpassed wave 5
bottom, the correction we have been
monitoring for the past days is finally
over, and it is official: we are in
a new down wave! But the bounce from
Friday's low 85.93, which is closing on
the important resistance 86.81 this
morning, warns of a correction to what
we have seen of the new wave so far
(the drop from 88.10 to 85.93).
Nevertheless, with a correction in these
areas, or without, dropping far
below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has
turned into a most probable
scenario. The resistance which will determine if
this bounce from Friday's
low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the
Dollar will keep shooting
higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine
as the "ceiling" for the
price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the
exciting support 86.25
instead, we will start dropping to areas below
Friday's low, we find 85.52 &
84.81 to be the most attractive of
* 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below
* 85.52: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of
Jul 1st & 16th.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an
obvious hourly support.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
* 88.10: Jul 28th
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
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Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
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Fri 22 Dec
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Mon 25 Dec
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
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