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Tuesday August 3, 2010 - 10:23:56 GMT
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European Market Update: Rumor that PBoC might again raise the Reserve Requirement Rate provides pause in global equity rally; USD at fresh multi-month lows (Trade the News)

Tuesday, August 03, 2010 5:54:47 AM

 European Market Update: Rumor that PBoC might again raise the Reserve Requirement Rate provides pause in global equity rally; USD at fresh multi-month lows


***Economic Data***
- (AU) Australia RBA Commodity Index: 97.4 v 95.1 prior; SDR Y/Y: 51.0% v 44.0% prior
- (SP) Spain July Net Unemployment M/M: -73.8K v -83.8K prior
- (TU) Turkey July Consumer Prices M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.7%e
- (TU) Turkey July Producer Prices M/M: +0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.5%e
- (SZ) Swiss July CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7% e
- (SP) Spain July Consumer Confidence: 73.6 v 65.9 prior
- (BZ) Brazil July FIPE CPI: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (UK) July PMI Construction: 54.1 v 58.0e
- (EU) Euro-Zone PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e
- (SA) South Africa July Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 20.0% v 20.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- (AS) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold €880M in 4.15% 2037 Bonds; avg yield 3.728% v 4.332% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.8x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold HUF50B in 3-month Bill; avg yield 5.43% v 5.46% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.4x
- (UK) DMO sold £3.75B in 2.75% 2015 Gilts; avg yield 2.060% v 2.274% prior%; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 2.3x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €2.7V in 3-month and 6-month Bills versus €2.8B indicated
- Sold €1.0B in 3-month Bills, avg yield 0.416% v 0.446% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.0x v 4.2x prior
- Sold €1.705B in 6-month Bills avg yield 0.516% v 0.490% prior; Bid-to-cover 2.9x v 1.5x prior

- Australia Central Bank (RBA) leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.50%; as expected
- USD continues to hit multi-month lows against most major pairs.
- US 2-year yield at record low below 0.545%
- UK PMI data falls steeper than expected

Equities: Rumors of a pending PBoC reserve requirement rate hike provided a pause in the recent global equity rally. Rumor started after chatter circulated that New Yuan loan data would exceed the CNY603B reported in June. Data set for release next week.

- As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.3% at 2,814 ; DAX Index +0.1% at 6,298; CAC-40 Index -0.3% at 3,742 and FTSE 100 Index -0.4% at 5,377

- Deutsche Post [DBW.GE] shares opened higher by 2.7% after numbers beat analysts' estimates and company increased guidance. DPW now expects an EBIT of €1.9-2.1B, higher than the previous range of €1.6-1.9B. DHL revenue expectations were also increased and the freight segment reported a notable yearly increase in revenues to €3.6B from €2.7B.
- Despite strong results, Xstrata [XTA.UK] was trading choppily as miners were the big decliners in the European session but continued to trade higher and at the time of writing is up 14.5 points. Company surprised positively on net earnings and revenues and noted encouraging outlook for thermal coal and copper. Follow up comments from its CFO noted that the company expected lower cost in copper, zinc and coal units in H2 and stated that the company would invest $5B in new mines.
- DSM [DSM.NV] opened higher by 0.5% on strong results and positive outlook for the remainder of the year However, company expected the demand in building and construction markets to remain at relatively low level and sales at its Performance Material segment to be lower in H2 than in H1.
- BMW [BMW.GE] shares traded higher by 2.2% after its earnings result beat analysts estimates and the company reported an overall increase in units deliveries and production. Noted that the Chinese market would provide the biggest contribution to worldwide growth and reaffirmed its expectations for a significant increase full-year group profit before tax compared to the previous year. Later in the session, management however stated that the strong Q2 earnings could not be projected into fiscal year and expected smaller sales increase in Q3 on seasonal factors as share of China's sale was to decrease in Q3. This did not impact the shares which continue to trade higher.
- Among UK names, constructor Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] returned to profitability in its first half and reported increasing home sales in UK and Spain. Company was satisfied with current trading. This lifted shares by 4.7% at the open. GKN was also higher by 0.7% at the open as it reported a pretax profit and revenue beat estimates. Its outlook was positive and, as speculated by the press, company restored interim dividend payment at 1.5p/shr

- Speakers:
- Japan Fin Min Noda: Spoke the standard G7 line on currencies. He noted that markets determined currency rates. Firmer JPY currency generally causes a drop in Japanese exports and hurts both corporate profits and households
- Kuwait oil minister: Satisfied with oil between $75-85 per barrel
- Fitch: UK currently has inflationary not deflationary risks
- S&P commented that Poland's fiscal plan and growth outlook were enough to safeguard the country's "A-" sovereign rating

- Currencies: The USD continued to hit fresh multi-lows against most major pairs as a record low 2-year US Treasury yield below 0.545% compounded the dollar's bearish sentiment. A softer European equity market could not even aifd the dollar's cause in the session. EUR/USD tested 1.3240 for fresh 3-month highs, GBP/USD inched towards the 1.60 neighborhood for fresh 6 month highs while USD/JPY moved below 85.90 for fresh 2010 lows and the lowest level since Dec 2009. Dealers cited Far East Asian names as consistent USD sellers again in the session. There was vague chatter circulating that the Chinese central bank (PBoC) might raise its reserve requirement as soon as Aug 3rd to curb the rise in new Yuan loans. The data is not expected out until next week but rumors circulated that New Yuan loans were well above the prior level of CNY603B experienced in June.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- Unions in Britain are threatening a campaign of national strikes during the autumn season protesting against government spending measures. Various unions representing civil servants, teachers, health and transportation workers are being asked to participate in the strikes on October 20th and 23rd,
- According to local press reports, Japan's Labor Ministry stated that the income gap is widening with the increase of companies hiring more irregular workers. The ministry noted that companies were prompted to hire more irregular workers in light of eased regulations on labor dispatch service.
-The Financial Times commented on the recent six-day drivers' union strike in Greece, stating that the impact from the protest have negatively affected the tourism industry. Typically, Greece sees about 14 million tourists annually. However, that number may fall by about 3.5% with spending also to decline by about 10%.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (RU) Russia July Official Reserve Assets: $ v $461.2B prior
- 7:00 (EU) ECB 7-day term deposit
- 7:00 (PD) Poland Gov't to vote on fiscal strategy
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Retail Sales
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.8%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 11.9%e v 14.8% priuor - -
- 8:30 (US) Jun Personal Income: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jun PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.9% prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:30 (SI) Singapore July Purchasing Managers Index: 51.0e v 51.3 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 50.1e v 50.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Factory Orders: -0.5%e v -1.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Pending Home Sales M/M: 4.0%e v -30.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -15.6% prior
- 11:30 (IR) Ireland Finance Ministry publishes Jan thru July budget data
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico July IMEF Manufacturing Index: 53.1e v 53.6 prior; Non Manufacturing Index: 53.1ev 53.3 prior
- 16:30 (US) API Weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 1st: No est v -48 prior



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