Improving Economic Outlook Boosts Euro, British Pound
Improving economic outlooks for both the Euro Zone and U.K. are
helping to boost the Euro and British Pound versus the Dollar overnight. Both
currencies continue to soar to the upside, driven by strong trend buying and
the lack of overhead resistance.
Poor U.S. economic data and expectations that U.S. growth
could lose momentum as government stimulus is withdrawn has led investors to
speculate that U.S. interest rates will stay low for a prolonged period of
Even the Wall Street Journal supports the notion that the
Federal Reserve will consider using cash the Fed receives when its
mortgage-backed holdings mature to buy new mortgage or Treasury Bonds, instead
of allowing its portfolio to shrink gradually, as it is expected to do in the
At its next policy meeting on August 8, analysts expect the
Fed members to mull over ways to stimulate the economy including quantitative
easing. This action by the policymakers will be a signal that there is a
deepening concern among members about the economic outlook.
Before the Fed meets, the Bank of England and the European
Central Bank will have a chance to express their outlooks for their respective
economies on August 5. The BoE is expected to keep its borrowing costs at
historically low levels while explaining how monetary policy and growth will be
affected by the recently imposed austerity measures and tax increases. The ECB
will also leave interest rates unchanged at 1%, but should offer a solid
explanation for the recent surge in economic growth despite talk of a slow down
due to sovereign debt issues only two months ago.
No matter how you look at the central bank meetings, it is
clear that the market believes that both the BoE and ECB are closer to raising
interest rates than the U.S. Fed.
Overnight the U.S. Dollar hit multi-month lows against most
major currencies, some of which had not been seen since mid-April.Negative sentiment is building which could
send the Dollar even lower today as pessimism about the economy continues to
Some of the pessimism about the economy was fueled by Fed
Chairman Bernanke on Monday when he told a group that the economy has yet to
recover fully and monetary policy must remain accommodative. Bernanke also said
it is going to take â€śsignificant timeâ€ť to restore the labor market.
In other news, the Dollar is losing ground to the Japanese
Yen despite news that Japanese Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Tuesday that
excessive, disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were undesirable and
that too strong a Yen hurts exports and households. Market participants have
heard this line before which may be the reason for the reaction. This form of
verbal intervention didnâ€™t work in the past to slow down the strength in the
Yen and is not expected to do so now. It seems that only an actual intervention
will force the Yen lower.
Finally, last night the Reserve Bank of Australia voted
to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.The main reason for this action was inline growth and inflation. The
Aussie surged initially on the news but pulled back from its highs throughout
the session. The consensus is the RBA is very content with keeping borrowing
costs at current levels until the economic outlook become clearer.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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