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Tuesday August 3, 2010 - 14:25:02 GMT
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Improving Economic Outlook Boosts Euro, British Pound

Improving economic outlooks for both the Euro Zone and U.K. are helping to boost the Euro and British Pound versus the Dollar overnight. Both currencies continue to soar to the upside, driven by strong trend buying and the lack of overhead resistance.

 

Poor U.S. economic data and expectations that U.S. growth could lose momentum as government stimulus is withdrawn has led investors to speculate that U.S. interest rates will stay low for a prolonged period of time. 

 

Even the Wall Street Journal supports the notion that the Federal Reserve will consider using cash the Fed receives when its mortgage-backed holdings mature to buy new mortgage or Treasury Bonds, instead of allowing its portfolio to shrink gradually, as it is expected to do in the months ahead.

 

At its next policy meeting on August 8, analysts expect the Fed members to mull over ways to stimulate the economy including quantitative easing. This action by the policymakers will be a signal that there is a deepening concern among members about the economic outlook.

 

Before the Fed meets, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will have a chance to express their outlooks for their respective economies on August 5. The BoE is expected to keep its borrowing costs at historically low levels while explaining how monetary policy and growth will be affected by the recently imposed austerity measures and tax increases. The ECB will also leave interest rates unchanged at 1%, but should offer a solid explanation for the recent surge in economic growth despite talk of a slow down due to sovereign debt issues only two months ago.

 

No matter how you look at the central bank meetings, it is clear that the market believes that both the BoE and ECB are closer to raising interest rates than the U.S. Fed.

 

Overnight the U.S. Dollar hit multi-month lows against most major currencies, some of which had not been seen since mid-April.  Negative sentiment is building which could send the Dollar even lower today as pessimism about the economy continues to build.

 

Some of the pessimism about the economy was fueled by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Monday when he told a group that the economy has yet to recover fully and monetary policy must remain accommodative. Bernanke also said it is going to take “significant time” to restore the labor market.

 

In other news, the Dollar is losing ground to the Japanese Yen despite news that Japanese Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Tuesday that excessive, disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were undesirable and that too strong a Yen hurts exports and households. Market participants have heard this line before which may be the reason for the reaction. This form of verbal intervention didn’t work in the past to slow down the strength in the Yen and is not expected to do so now. It seems that only an actual intervention will force the Yen lower.

 

Finally, last night the Reserve Bank of Australia voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.  The main reason for this action was inline growth and inflation. The Aussie surged initially on the news but pulled back from its highs throughout the session. The consensus is the RBA is very content with keeping borrowing costs at current levels until the economic outlook become clearer.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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