The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3260
level and was supported around the $1.3145 level. The common currency rocketed to its highest
level since May of this year and tested a major resistance level at US$ 1.3265,
representing the 76.4% retracement level of the move from $1.3690 to $1.1875.Improving global demand for riskier assets propelled
the pair higher to multi-week highs.Data released in the U.S. today saw June personal income decline to
+0.0% while personal spending also came in at +0.0%.The June PCE deflator shrank to +1.4% y/y from
the prior reading of 2.1% and core PCE was up 0.0% m/m and 1.4% y/y.These data will stoke a discussion about the
possibility of deflation in the U.S. economy but most economists are reporting
this is simply a disinflationary period.Other data saw June factory orders off 1.2%, an improvement from the
prior reading of -1.8%, while June pending home sales were off 2.6% m/m and
down 20.1% y/y, underscoring ongoing problems in the U.S. housing sector.Data to be released tomorrow include MBA
mortgage applications, July Challenger job cuts, July ADP employment data, and
July ISM non-manufacturing data.There
is ongoing speculation the Federal Reserve may be forced to resume its
asset-purchase programs to provide additional liquidity and support to the U.S.
economy at a time when the Fed is trying to reduce its balance sheet.Fed Chairman Bernanke yesterday reported that
consumer spending ‚Äúis likely to pick up‚ÄĚ amid a ‚Äúmoderate‚ÄĚ expansion.Last week, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser
said additional calls for Fed stimulus ‚Äúare premature.‚ÄĚTwo-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to a
record low today at 0.51%.Most dealers
expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep monetary policy unchanged
next Tuesday.In eurozone news, eurozone June producer price inflation was up
0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y.Many traders
believe the Fed will be more proactive about stimulating the economy through
monetary policy measures than the European Central Bank and this perception of
declining U.S. yields is adding to the euro‚Äôs gains.Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said policymakers
are ‚Äúsatisfied‚ÄĚ with Greek financial reforms undertaken so far.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•86.65
level and was supported around the ¬•85.65 level. Central bank officials from Japan,
China, and South Korea convened today to discuss the regional economy.Traders continue to test the Japanese government‚Äôs
resolve by pushing the pair back to the ¬•85 handle.There continues to be chatter that Japanese
monetary authorities will conduct yen-selling intervention if the pair weakens
much more.Ten-year Japanese government
bonds yields declined further today to 1.03%, an indication that traders expect
the continued downward pressure on markets borrowing costs.Bank of Japan Policy Board member Miyao
warned the yen‚Äôs appreciation may damage the Japanese economy and impact the
central bank‚Äôs economic outlook.Data
released in Japan overnight saw the July monetary base climb 6.1% y/y.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.29% to
close at ¬•9,694.01.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•86.29 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•113.10 level and was capped around the ¬•114.15 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•136.30 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•82.45 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7734 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7745. Data released in China overnight saw the July
non-manufacturing PMI survey tick higher to 60.1 from the prior result of 57.4.
HSBC July PMI services data will be released overnight.Former People‚Äôs Bank of China adviser Yu
warned he ‚Äúdoes not think U.S. Treasuries are safe in the medium-and-long run.‚ÄĚ
British pound appreciated sharply vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable
tested offers around the US$ 1.5965 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5860
level.Sterling pushed higher after former
Bank of England Deputy Governor Gieve reported the central bank should not
loosen monetary policy further or increase its asset-purchase program.Also, dealers pushed sterling higher on news
that government-owned mortgage lender Northern Rock registered its first
profit.BoE‚Äôs Monetary Policy Committee
convenes on Thursday and while it is not expected to raise rates, there may be
more than one policymakers who votes for higher rates.Data released in the U.K. today saw July PMI
construction decline to 54.1.The BRC
July shop price index will be released tonight.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270 level.The
euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested
offers around the ¬£0.8315 level and was supported around the ¬£0.8270 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0415 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0345 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw July
consumer price inflation off 0.7% m/m and up 0.4% y/y.Data released in Switzerland yesterday saw
June retail sales decline to +0.9% y/y from the revised prior print of +3.9%
y/y.The July PMI manufacturing survey
improved to 66.9 from the prior reading of 65.7.July consumer price inflation data will be
released tomorrow.Other data released yesterday
saw the SNB July quarterly KOF employment indicator improve to 11.2 from a
revised 3.8 in April.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3750 level
while the British pound moved higher
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6580 level.
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Mon 26 Feb 2018 A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales Tue 27 Feb 2018 A 08:55 DE- Jobless B 13:30 US- Durable Goods A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony Wed 28 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP AA 13:30 US- GDP A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 1 Mar 2018 A All Day final Mfg PMIs A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Fri 2 Mar 2018 AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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