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Wednesday August 4, 2010 - 10:52:10 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/08/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis August 04, 2010


Fundamental Analysis
: Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the
health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are
fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a
meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 455.00K.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3174, and came
very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped (for
the second day in a row) only 6 pips before it, before retreating
significantly to 1.3181. The fact that the rising move is slowing down warns
of a possible correction for the whole rise from Friday's low. Such a
correction would be a violent one, with its size a little less than 200
pips, since its ideal target is at 1.3086. Therefore, we should keep eyes &
mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans
ready. What is requested from the Euro now is to break the resistance 1.3227
which it is trading almost 20 pips below. This resistance is the key to more
fireworks, and is the key to 1.33. If broken, we will target 1.3311 first,
and at a later time 1.3383 as well. On the other hand, correction
possibilities remain weak as long as we are trading above 1.3153. But if
broken, we will be already in a short term correction, which will ideally
target the single most important support for now 1.3086. And if this one is
also broken, we will drop to test Friday's low 1.2979.

Support:
* 1.3153: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.3086: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and Fibonacci 61.8%
retracement level for the rise from Friday's low. The single most important
support for the time being.
* 1.2979Friday's low, and the launch point of this recent rising move.

Resistance:
* 1.3227: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
* 1.3311: Mar 24th low.
* 1.3383: Mar 31st low.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen dropped in the down wave we have talked about, it broke the
support specified in yesterday's report 86.25, and successfully reached the
first suggested target 85.52. With this, the first target of the falling
wave is met, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is
a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the
bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is
an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08,
Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a
perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did
before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to
reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that the limited volatility
of this pair indicates that this will take some time. As for the short term,
the support is at 85.31, and breaking it would indicate that we are already
moving lower with the objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not
seen in 15 years. This break will target 84.81 first, then 83.87. The
resistance is at 86.02, and if broken, we will target the important 86.81,
then 87.49.

Support:
* 85.31: Asian session low.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.

Resistance:
* 86.02: the falling trend line from 88.10 on the hourly chart.
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.

---


Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

---

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

Forex Trading News

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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