Wednesday August 4, 2010 - 12:19:36 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 04-Aug-2010 - 1217 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF 1.0391/93...Continuing to trade in a Range
R: 1.0450 / 1.0480-510 / 1.0550
S: 1.0384-48 / 1.0281 / 1.0200
Dollar-Swiss again went up to touch a high of 1.0435 and has fallen below 1.0400. Since the US session on Thursday, the apir is continuing to trade in a range of 1.0350-450. We continue to wait and watch if the pair honours the Support at 1.0350 and moves up strongly or breaks below 1.0350 and moves down in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow.
A break below 1.0350 may see the pair fall towards 1.0250-00 or even 1.01 in the coming weeks. We see higher chances of a downmove than an upmove over today and tomorrow.
We would want to approach the markets from the short side but would wait for some more calrity before we enter a trade.
GBP-USD @ 1.5952/55...Buy dips
R: 1.5967-80 / 1.6027
S: 1.5850 / 1.5736 / 1.5635
Cable has been moving in the range of 1.5860-960 since the Asian session yesterday. Please note that 1.5970 is the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 1.7042 (Aug-09) to 1.4227 (May-09) and 1.5977 is the Bollinger Bands Resistance on the daily charts. These Resistances are still holdiong strong and we may see see some downmove on the pair towards 1.5850-00 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow before another rally towards 1.5950-6000 is seen.
In the longer term, we continue to hold our view of a double bottom on the monthly charts which may result in a very strong upmove in the coming weeks/ months.
AUD-USD 0.9154/57...Strong Resistance at 0.9165-75
R: 0.9165-75 / 0.9250 / 0.9300
S: 0.9050 / 0.8950 / 0.8900
Aussie went up touch a high of 0.9168 in the European session today. The pair is at a Trendline Resistance (0.9165-75) on the the 4-hourly, daily, the weekly charts and we may see it moving down towards 0.9050-9000 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow. However, a break above 0.9150 may take it towards 0.9250-300, still the possibility of a downmove is higher than the upmove.
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