Friday April 1, 2005 - 01:37:31 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 1st April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2004 ... 1.2038 ... 1.2067 ... 1.2084
Support....: 1.1940 ... 1.1919 ... 1.1891 ... 1.1870
Mixed - waiting for breaks
We saw a move below the 1.1914 support and to 1.1891. This leaves the bullish stance a little mixed although a move as low as 1.1857-73 would still hold within a bullish structure. Thus to re-instate more confidence in any bullish move we require a move above 1.2004-10 which would then generate follow-through to retest the 1.2065-84 highs. A move above there will allow continued gains through 1.2140 to 1.2202.
While the move below 1.1914 disappointed we cannot be confident of a bearish stance until the 1.1857-73 area is broken. Even then we see the 1.1800-25 pivot support as significant and if seen would cause a pullback at the very least. While this bearish stance is valid we require 1.1975-1.2004 to hold any pullback.
Elliott Wave Comments:
31st March 2005
With the ideal 1.1914 retracement target remaining intact we are encouraged with our bullish view and count yesterday's 1.1924 low as Wave -b- of Wave -iii-. This should now imply that we see gains to the target areas at minimum 1.2202 and possibly 1.2263-80.
1st April 2005
While we had expected the 1.1914 level to hold we can look at a 61.8% retracement in Wave -b- and this would still allow a move down to 1.1873 with a 66.67% retracement implying 1.1857. Thus the bullish structure has still not been confirmed as broken down. The Wave -iii- targets remain as previously stated. Any drop below 1.1857 would confirm losses in a larger sideways consolidation but we note the clear pivot support around 1.1800-25 which would stall the downside initially.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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