The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3130
level and was capped around the $1.3240 level. The common currency yesterday tested an
important technical resistance level, representing the 76.4% retracement of the
move from $1.3690 to $1.1875.Today, the
pair tested an important technical support level, representing the 38.2%
retracement of the move from $1.5105 to $1.1875.The European Central Bank is not expected to
alter monetary policy tomorrow when it announces its interest rate decision.The pair has been bid higher for several
weeks on a perception that some stability may be returning to the
eurozone.Some dealers, however, believe
some eurozone countries will have to tighten their fiscal bets further and
speculate this could lead to another wave down for the common currency.Data released in the U.S. today saw MBA
mortgage applications reverse course and climb 1.3% while Challenger July job
cuts printed at -57.2% y/y.Other data
saw ADP July employment improve to +42,000 from the revised previous tally of
+19,000, an indication of better private sector job growth.Finally, the ISM July non-manufacturing index
improved to 54.3 from the prior reading of 53.8.Data to be released tomorrow include weekly
initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims. The most important data
will be released on Friday when the July non-farm payrolls data are released.Some forecasts are calling for a decline of
65,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate coming in around 9.6%.The Federal Open Market Committee convenes
next week and is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged.The Fed today drained US$ 180 million in
temporary liquidity from the banking system via reverse repos.Some dealers expect the Fed will eventually
be forced to enact additional credit easing policies, possibly by buying more
securities in the market.In eurozone news, the eurozone July
services index fell to 55.8 from the prior reading of 56.0 while the July
composite index remained steady at 56.7.Other data saw eurozone June retail sales up 0.0% m/m and 0.4% y/y.Also, German July PMI services came off to
56.5 while French July PMI services ticked lower to 61.1.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ86.35
level and was supported around the ÂĄ85.30 level. Finance minister Noda verbally intervened
against the yenâ€™s recent appreciation, noting moves have been â€śa bit one-sided.â€ť
Noda reported â€śOur basic stance is that disorderly and excessive currency
movements are undesirable and can have a negative impact on the stability of
the economy and finance.â€ťHe added he
will â€ścontinue to monitor developments in markets more carefully.â€ť Notably,
yields on Japanâ€™s benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond fell below 1%
overnight for the first time since August 2003, indicative of the expectation
that monetary policy will remain accommodative for quite some time with
inflation unlikely.The July leading
index and coincident index will be released on Friday.Traders continue to spotlight the ÂĄ85 handle
on the premise monetary authorities may conduct yen-selling intervention to
prevent a move below that level.Bank of
Japan Policy Board member Miyao yesterday warned the yenâ€™s appreciation may
damage the Japanese economy and impact the central bankâ€™s economic
outlook.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost
2.11% to close at ÂĄ9,489.34.U.S. dollar
bids are cited around the ÂĄ85.30 level.The euro
moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
ÂĄ112.70 level and was capped around the ÂĄ113.65 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ135.80 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ81.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7736 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7734. Data released in China overnight saw July HSBC
services PMI print at 56.3, up from the prior reading of 55.6.Peopleâ€™s Bank of China member Zhou Qiren
reported China should consider reducing the value of the yuan slightly to
improve exports.On 19 June, PBoC
announced it will allow the yuan to appreciate.
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5855 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5960 level.Former Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee members Gieve and Goodhart warned interest rates in the U.K. will
move higher more sharply and earlier than expected.Gieve noted he â€śwouldnâ€™t at all be surprised
to see interest rates at 2.5% a year from now,â€ť adding the Bank will want to
normalize policy â€śmore quicklyâ€ť when the recovery is established.BoEâ€™s MPC will announce its interest rate
decision tomorrow and is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged.Many BoE-watchers believe at least one MPC
member will vote for higher rates tomorrow.Data released in the U.K. today saw Halifax July house prices up 0.6%
m/m while July PMI services fell to 53.1 from 54.4.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270
level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8275 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8305
franc depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0555 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0380 level. Data
released in Switzerland this week saw July consumer price inflation off 0.7%
m/m and up 0.4% y/y while June retail sales declined to +0.9% y/y from the
revised prior print of +3.9% y/y.Also,
the July PMI manufacturing survey improved to 66.9 from the prior reading of
65.7 and the SNB July quarterly KOF employment indicator improved to 11.2 from
a revised 3.8 in April. There were some
rumours in the market today that Swiss National Bank was on the bid in a
franc-selling intervention operation.SNB
has quadrupled its foreign exchange holdings since March 2009 to counter the
francâ€™s appreciation and support the Swiss export sector.The central bank has already reported some
losses as a result of its increased foreign reserves.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The
euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers
around the CHF 1.3865 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.6745 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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